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Fact check: Is the NBA lottery rigged?
1. Summary of the results
The question of whether the NBA lottery is rigged cannot be definitively answered due to lack of concrete evidence. While there are numerous suspicious instances and coincidences, including the recent 2025 Dallas Mavericks winning with just 1.8% odds after trading Luka Doncic [1], there are significant safeguards in place to prevent manipulation. These include media witnesses, team representatives, and third-party auditing by Ernst & Young [2] [2].
2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints
Several important contextual elements need to be considered:
- Historical Precedents: The 1985 NBA Draft Lottery, where the Knicks got Patrick Ewing, remains the most cited example of potential manipulation, with speculation about a "frozen envelope" being used [3]. However, it's worth noting that despite getting Ewing, the Knicks didn't win any championships during this era [4].
- Professional Perspectives: Notable NBA figures have expressed skepticism about the lottery's integrity:
- Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade have suggested the draft could be influenced by business considerations [5]
- NBA executives and team managers have discussed potential "fixes" before lottery results [6]
- Security Measures: The NBA has implemented several safeguards:
- Public video releases of the ping pong ball process
- Team representatives present during drawings
- Rigging would constitute a federal crime [7]
3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement
The question itself oversimplifies a complex issue where multiple parties have vested interests:
- Financial Stakeholders: The NBA, as a business, benefits from maintaining the appearance of both fairness and excitement. Major market teams succeeding can significantly impact league revenues [6].
- Media and Entertainment: Conspiracy theories and speculation drive engagement and viewership, benefiting media outlets and content creators who cover these stories.
- Legal Considerations: While suspicions persist, it's crucial to note that no concrete evidence of manipulation has ever been presented [7], and such actions would constitute serious federal crimes.
The reality appears to be that while statistically improbable outcomes do occur [2], the existence of multiple safeguards and the severe legal consequences of manipulation make systematic rigging unlikely, even if individual instances remain suspicious.