Fact check: Have planes become increasingly more dangerous?

1. Summary of the results

The question of whether planes have become increasingly dangerous requires a nuanced analysis. From a traditional safety metrics perspective, air travel remains extraordinarily safe, with a death risk of just one in 13.7 million per flight boarding ^[1]. However, new environmental challenges are emerging that affect flight safety in different ways - there has been a 55% increase in severe clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic since 1979, with projections showing this could rise to 180% by 2060 ^[2].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important contextual elements are missing from the original question:

• Comparative Safety: Despite recent incidents resulting in 200 lives lost in December 2024, aviation remains far safer than road travel, which saw 1.19 million fatalities in 2023 ^[1].
• Climate Change Impact: The aviation industry faces new challenges due to climate change, including:
• Increased severe turbulence incidents
• More extreme weather events affecting airports
• Rising temperatures impacting takeoff performance
• Stronger headwinds reducing flight efficiency ^[2]
• Industry Response: The aviation industry has responded with:
• Rigorous safety standards
• Detailed airline safety rankings
• New safety-focused booking platforms ^[1]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question oversimplifies a complex issue by suggesting a simple yes/no answer. Several stakeholders have different interests in how this question is answered:

• Airlines and manufacturers benefit from emphasizing traditional safety metrics and their safety improvements ^[1]
• Environmental organizations benefit from highlighting climate change-related risks to push for industry reforms ^[2]
• Safety regulators benefit from demonstrating both the current safety levels and emerging challenges to justify continued oversight and new regulations

The reality is that while traditional safety metrics show aviation is extremely safe ^[1], new environmental challenges are creating different types of safety concerns that need to be addressed ^[2].