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Fact check: Bsky Will replace twitter

Checked on December 13, 2024

1. Summary of the results

1. Summary of the results:

Bluesky has shown significant growth, reaching approximately 20 million users by late 2024, but remains far behind Twitter/X's 350 million active users. While the platform has experienced rapid expansion, particularly after the US election, and attracts a younger demographic (18-34), it has not yet achieved the scale or cultural impact to replace Twitter.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints:

  • The original statement omits that multiple platforms are competing for Twitter's user base, including Instagram Threads with 275 million users
  • Jack Dorsey, Twitter's former CEO, created Bluesky, which provides important context about the platform's origins and potential
  • The statement doesn't mention Bluesky's unique features like the AT Protocol for account portability and decentralized structure
  • Financial context is missing: Bluesky currently has no meaningful revenue model, while Twitter/X remains a major advertising platform
  • The decline in Twitter/X's user base (16% drop in mobile users in September 2023) and increased hate speech under Elon Musk's leadership provides important context for Bluesky's growth

3. Potential misinformation/bias:

  • The statement presents a false binary choice between Twitter and Bluesky, ignoring other significant platforms
  • It overlooks that different platforms can coexist rather than one necessarily replacing another
  • The statement benefits specific groups:

Bluesky investors and developers who gain from perceived inevitability of success

Critics of Elon Musk's Twitter leadership who want to see alternative platforms succeed

  • Jack Dorsey and other former Twitter executives who have stakes in Bluesky's success
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