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Excess Mortality Methodologies

The various methods used to estimate excess mortality, including the construction of expected baselines, the exclusion of pandemic weeks, and the handling of uncertainty bounds.

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Jan 27, 2026
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How do excess‑mortality estimates for the U.S. through 2025 compare with the confirmed COVID-19 death tally reported by CDC NVSS?

for the through the and into 2023–2025 generally exceed the tally of confirmed COVID‑19 deaths that appear in ’s National Vital Statistics System (), reflecting deaths both directly attributable to SA...