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Forecast Accuracy Metrics

The use of various metrics, such as track and intensity error, root-mean-square error, and ensemble verification scores, to measure forecast accuracy.

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Jan 24, 2026
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How have weather‑forecast accuracy metrics changed since the 2024–2026 NOAA staffing and budget shifts?

-released advances since 2024 show measurable improvements in several — notably in and intensity skill and in large‑scale pattern forecasts driven by new AI‑hybrid and upgraded physics systems — but t...