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Revenue Loss Projections 2025-2028

Independent modeling from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy projected substantial state revenue losses if states link to the federal tips-and-overtime breaks.

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Jan 24, 2026
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Which states will conform to or reject the federal overtime deduction for state income tax purposes?

for qualified overtime and certain tipped income for tax years 2025–2028, leaving whether to mirror those federal breaks on their own income-tax returns . A handful of states have moved quickly — has ...

Jan 28, 2026

How much revenue would each state lose if it conformed to the OBBBA tips and overtime deductions?

If every state “conformed” to the ’s new deductions for qualified tips and qualified overtime, states collectively would lose about in 2026 alone — a figure calculated by the and widely cited in polic...