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How did China's soybean imports from Brazil compare to US exports in 2024?
Executive Summary
China imported substantially more soybeans from Brazil than it bought from the United States in 2024, with available data showing the U.S. shipped about 985 million bushels to China in 2024, while Brazil’s exports to China are consistently described as far larger—implied at roughly 2.4–2.5 billion bushels when applying published Brazil export totals and historical China‑share estimates. Exact Brazil‑to‑China 2024 figures are not directly reported in the supplied sources, so some comparisons rely on documented totals and conservative, documented share assumptions [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the numbers point decisively to Brazil outpacing the U.S. in China sales
The clearest reported figure in the set is that the United States shipped nearly 985 million bushels of soybeans to China in 2024, representing roughly 51% of U.S. soybean exports that year, a fact documented by contemporaneous trade reporting [1]. Brazil’s published total exports for 2024 were projected by at least one agricultural analysis at about 3,490 million bushels, and Brazil historically sends a large majority of that crop to China—about 73% in 2023 and roughly 48% of production to China cited for 2024 in a separate report. Applying these documented totals and historical shares yields an implied Brazil‑to‑China flow in the ~2.4–2.5 billion bushel range, which is well above the U.S. 2024 shipments to China and makes Brazil the dominant supplier [2] [1] [3].
2. What the sources say directly and what they do not disclose
The sources provide a direct, recent U.S. figure for 2024 (985 million bushels to China) and a clear 2025 Brazil record—Brazil shipped 2.474 billion bushels to China from January through August 2025, a level that alone exceeded total U.S. 2024 shipments to China. However, the sources do not publish a single, explicit line item stating “Brazil shipped X bushels to China in calendar 2024.” Instead, analysts derive a 2024 estimate by combining Brazil’s total export projections and historical China‑share percentages. That means the conclusion that Brazil outpaced the U.S. in 2024 is robust on available evidence, but it rests on documented totals plus reasonable allocation assumptions, not a single published 2024 Brazil‑to‑China datapoint [1] [2] [3].
3. Value and context: U.S. export dollars versus Brazilian tonnage
Trade-value reporting adds context: USDA-linked reporting shows U.S. soybean exports to China in 2024 were valued at about $12.64 billion, roughly half of total U.S. soybean export value for the year. That dollar figure confirms the scale of U.S. shipments but does not change the tonnage comparison—Brazil’s volume advantage is reflected in export bushels and growing 2025 records, and when measured by weight/volume Brazil’s shipments to China clearly exceed U.S. shipments for 2024 [4] [1] [3]. Price differences, freight, and crushing at destination can affect value comparisons, so volume and value tell complementary stories about market share and economic impact.
4. Trends and turning points: trade policy, planting, and timing
The larger picture shows a structural shift that began during the U.S.–China tariff episode: Brazil overtook the United States as the world’s top soybean exporter in 2018 and has steadily expanded shipments to China since then. Trade disruptions, Chinese domestic policy, and Brazil’s planting and logistical investments drove the reallocation of China’s purchases. Sources note that Brazil’s share of China’s imports peaked previously above 80% in certain years, and 2025 record shipments underscore a sustained trend in favor of Brazilian supply. These historical and policy drivers explain why a 2024 comparison favors Brazil even before the explicit 2025 numbers made the gap unmistakable [5] [3].
5. Bottom line and caveats for precise accounting
The bottom line: China bought far more soybeans from Brazil than it bought from the United States in 2024, based on a reported U.S.-to-China flow of about 985 million bushels and Brazil export totals and historical China‑share allocations that imply roughly 2.4–2.5 billion bushels to China. The principal caveat is that none of the supplied sources publishes an unambiguous calendar‑year Brazil‑to‑China 2024 bushel number; the estimate combines documented Brazilian export totals and documented China‑share percentages. Readers seeking a single official Brazil‑to‑China 2024 figure should consult Brazil’s customs data or official Chinese import statistics for calendar‑specific accounting, but the available evidence makes the comparative conclusion clear and robust [1] [2] [3].