How much refined silver refining capacity exists by country and how quickly can new refining capacity be brought online?
Executive summary
Global refined silver capacity is concentrated and opaque: industry commentary places total refining throughput at roughly 1.3 billion ounces per year across a few dozen major refineries, with China accounting for an outsized share — commonly cited at 60–70% of refined output — while published mine production totals remain below demand, producing persistent deficits [1] [2] [3]. The available reporting flags refinery bottlenecks and a meaningful lag between demand shocks and new capacity coming online, but does not provide a comprehensive, country-by-country capacity ledger or firm timelines for new-builds [1] [4].
1. Concentration: a few countries, one dominant player
Multiple industry commentaries and market analyses identify China as the central hub for refined silver processing, estimating that Chinese refiners supply roughly 60–70% of the world’s refined silver and thus act as the gatekeeper for finished product exports — a structural market fact that magnifies the effect of Chinese export controls [5] [6] [2]. Other producing countries such as Mexico, Peru, Russia and the United States are major mine producers and have refining capability — Mexico is repeatedly described as having “robust refining capacity” and remains the top silver miner — but none match the scale of Chinese refining as described in reporting [7] [8] [9].
2. How much total refining capacity exists — the best available estimate
A focused industry write-up synthesizing market commentary puts global silver refining capacity at about 1.3 billion ounces annually across roughly 40 major refineries, a figure used to explain why physical shortages look like capacity bottlenecks rather than absolute absence of metal [1]. That estimate sits alongside Silver Institute and USGS production figures showing annual mine production in the order of ~820 million ounces in 2024 and broader annual consumption numbers that create multi‑hundred million ounce deficits in recent years, underscoring why refinery throughput matters for market tightness [3] [4] [10].
3. The bottleneck narrative and policy shock amplifiers
Reporting ties the current premium and price volatility to two converging problems: rising structural demand (industrial, solar, electronics) that has produced multi‑year deficits, and policy moves such as China’s 2026 export restrictions that limit the set of eligible exporters and therefore throttle cross‑border flows of refined product — rules that, according to reports, require large, licensed firms to meet minimum scale and credit thresholds before exporting [3] [5] [6] [2]. That combination makes existing refinery throughput the practical constraint most market participants are watching [1] [2].
4. How quickly can new refining capacity be brought online?
Sources emphasize a “lag effect” between recognizing capacity shortfalls and seeing new refinery throughput materialize, and they document backlog and financing stresses for refiners — but none of the provided reporting gives a precise, verifiable build‑time or commissioning timetable for a new major bullion refinery [1] [4]. Industry commentary therefore concludes only that expanding or adding meaningful global refining capacity is not an immediate fix; expansions and licensing are subject to capital, environmental permits, skilled labour and, in some jurisdictions, state licensing regimes that can materially delay output increases [1] [4].
5. What this means for markets and policy
With global mine production below apparent demand and with refining throughput concentrated in a small number of facilities — and especially with China’s dominant refining share and recent export rules — short‑term physical tightness and price volatility are logical outcomes, while relief depends on incremental processing efficiency, recycling growth and slower, uncertain additions to refinery capacity [3] [1] [4]. The reporting reviewed makes clear there is no single, transparent global register of refined capacity by country, so market narratives fill gaps with estimates that can vary by outlet and by vested interest [1] [2].