Barrels of oil produced in us per day
Executive summary
The United States is producing at near-record levels: EIA data show a July 2025 peak of about 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d), and the agency’s forecasts put average U.S. crude production roughly between 13.3 and 13.8 million b/d over 2025–2026 depending on the release and update cited [1] [2] [3] [4]. Short-term direction hinges on prices and producer responses: the EIA expects modest declines as lower prices curb activity, while some private forecasters see slight growth or greater downside risk tied to OPEC actions and shale economics [2] [3] [5] [4].
1. The current headline number: what the EIA reports and why it matters
The Energy Information Administration reported a record-high monthly U.S. crude oil production of about 13.6 million b/d in July 2025, prompting upward adjustments to its short-term outlook; the EIA’s October 2025 and January 2026 short-term outlooks then placed 2025–2026 averages around 13.5–13.6 million b/d or slightly lower depending on the update [1] [6] [2] [3]. Those EIA figures are the standard reference because they compile field-level monthly and weekly production data and translate them into national averages—numbers markets, policymakers and analysts use to judge supply balance and price trajectories [7] [8].
2. Forecasts diverge: modest decline, flat growth or a small upside—each with caveats
EIA forecasts published in late 2025 and updated in January 2026 generally expect U.S. production to remain near the 2025 record—about 13.5–13.6 million b/d in 2026—before easing toward 13.3 million b/d in 2027 as lower prices reduce activity [1] [3] [2]. By contrast, BloombergNEF’s outlook projects U.S. output near 13.8 million b/d in 2026, arguing for modest growth amid continuing supply additions [4]. Those differences reflect assumptions about prices, drilling discipline, and whether new offshore and Permian supply can offset declines elsewhere [2] [3].
3. Downside risks: price shocks, OPEC moves and shale sensitivity
Analysts warn of meaningful downside if oil prices fall sharply: Rystad Energy estimated U.S. shale production could drop by as much as 400,000 b/d in 2026 under a $40/barrel scenario driven by aggressive OPEC moves, underscoring shale’s responsiveness to price and capital allocation decisions [5]. The EIA similarly ties its forecasts to assumed West Texas Intermediate price paths—lower prices in their baseline drive the modest production declines they project [2] [3].
4. Demand, refineries and why production isn’t the whole story
Even with U.S. production above 13 million b/d, domestic refineries historically process more crude than domestic output alone, with industry groups noting U.S. refineries need roughly 16.5 million b/d to maintain current utilization—partly because many refineries are configured to run heavier crudes that domestic light shale does not always supply [9]. Separately, U.S. consumption of all petroleum products still runs substantially higher (about 20 million-plus b/d of petroleum product supplied in recent years), so imports, exports and stock changes complicate the simple “production equals consumption” picture [10] [9].
5. Data cadence, revisions and where to look next
Weekly and monthly EIA series provide the primary empirical record—weekly field production and monthly aggregated series are the reference datasets analysts check for near-real-time signals and for revisions that sometimes lift reported peaks [8] [7]. The EIA’s short-term outlooks and press releases document both the current measurements (e.g., July 2025’s 13.6 million b/d reading) and the agency’s assumptions about prices and basin-level dynamics that drive their forecasts [1] [2].
6. What this means for readers following energy markets
A practical takeaway is that U.S. crude production today is in the mid-13 million b/d range, with credible forecasts clustering around 13.3–13.8 million b/d for 2026 but with meaningful sensitivity to price swings and OPEC behaviour; headline monthly records (13.6 million b/d in July 2025) inform but do not lock in future averages, and private-sector forecasts and industry statements (which can reflect particular agendas, such as refinery messaging about crude mix needs) should be read alongside EIA data [1] [2] [3] [9] [4] [5].