How did annual inflation rates differ between 2024 and 2025 in major economies like the US, EU, and China?
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Executive summary
Annual headline inflation fell in most major economies from 2024 to 2025: the euro area’s headline rate is reported falling from about 4.0% in 2024 to roughly 3.2% in 2025 in ECB staff projections [1], while EU institutional forecasts expect euro‑area inflation to average 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.4% in 2024 [2]. Data and commentary show China’s inflation around zero (about 0.2% in late 2024 and near‑zero into 2025) [3], and analysts warn the United States may see upward pressure in 2025 even as other regions disinflate [4] [5].
1. Europe: disinflation, but different official gauges tell different stories
European sources converge on falling inflation into 2025, but the scale depends on the series and forecaster. ECB staff write that headline CPI would moderate from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 [1]. The European Commission’s Spring 2025 forecast, using euro‑area and EU aggregates, expects headline inflation to drop from 2.4% in 2024 to an average 2.1% in 2025, signalling a quicker return toward central‑bank targets [2]. Those two figures reflect different cut‑offs and methods (ECB projections versus EU spring forecast), so both are credible and together show a clear downtrend across 2024→2025 [1] [2].
2. United States: risk of renewed pressure even as global inflation eases
Global research groups single out the United States as a potential exception to broad disinflation. J.P. Morgan’s global inflation outlook flags a U.S. cost‑push risk in the second half of 2025—tariff‑related and sectoral pressures could lift U.S. core inflation even while Europe moderates [4]. Broad commentators also note that global CPI roughly halved from its 2022 peak toward late‑2024, but that country‑level trajectories can diverge [5]. Available sources do not provide a single consolidated U.S. headline‑rate figure for the full 2025 year in this set; J.P. Morgan instead highlights rising U.S. pressures relative to other regions [4] [5].
3. China: weak price pressure, inflation hovering near zero
Official and multilateral data show China’s consumer price inflation close to zero at the end of 2024 and remaining weak into 2025. The OECD reported China’s inflation “close to zero, at 0.2%” in late 2024 [3]. Statista snapshots for 2025 also point to China having among the lowest inflation rates (including a September 2025 figure showing -0.3% in one dataset), underscoring the regional trend of very low or even negative monthly inflation in 2025 [6] [3]. That pattern contrasts with Western economies’ still‑positive rates and explains why Asia was forecast to see the lowest inflation in 2025 [5].
4. Global aggregates: moderation but uneven outcomes
Multilateral projections and private forecasters agree world headline inflation eases from the highs of 2022 into 2025, yet with uneven national outcomes. The ECB staff project global headline CPI to fall from about 4.0% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 [1]. The OECD shows OECD inflation around 4–4.5% in late 2024 and into 2025 months, reflecting residual stickiness [3] [7]. Private forecasters expect Asia’s weak pricing and softer Chinese demand to pull regional inflation down, while concentrated U.S. or tariff shocks could raise U.S. core inflation and therefore influence global aggregates [4] [5].
5. Why the numbers differ and what to watch next
Differences come from methodology (CPI vs HICP), timing (calendar‑year averages vs end‑period), and model assumptions (tariff scenarios, futures for commodities). The ECB staff and EU Commission use distinct projection frameworks and cut‑off dates producing different 2025 point estimates even as both register a decline from 2024 [1] [2]. Watch three cross‑cutting risks: commodity and energy swings, tariff policy changes—flagged by J.P. Morgan as a U.S. risk to 2025 core inflation—and China’s demand trajectory which will determine whether Asia remains a low‑inflation anchor [4] [5] [3].
Limitations and where reporting is thin: the provided sources offer projections and monthly snapshots but do not supply a single consistent set of country‑level annual averages for the U.S., euro area and China for both calendar years 2024 and 2025 together. For an exact country‑by‑country year‑over‑year comparison, primary statistics agencies or consolidated IMF/WEO tables (not in the supplied snippets) would be needed; available sources do not mention a complete, single table comparing 2024 vs 2025 annual inflation rates for the US, EU and China in one place [1] [2] [3] [4].