What are the most credible estimates of annual silver recycling and primary mine production through 2026, and how sensitive are they to price?
Executive summary
Most credible, peer‑cited counts place annual primary silver mine production in 2024–2026 at roughly 800–835 million ounces and secondary (recycled) supply in the 180–195 million ounce range, leaving total accessible supply near 1.0–1.03 billion ounces and driving recurring deficits versus demand estimates; these figures come from the Silver Institute/Metals Focus World Silver Survey and corroborating industry and government data [1] [2] [3] [4]. Supply responsiveness to price is muted: because most silver is a byproduct of base‑metal mining, higher silver prices have limited ability to lift primary output quickly, while recycling is somewhat more price‑sensitive but constrained by collection, technology and declining photographic scrap volumes [5] [6] [7] [4].
1. Credible baseline numbers for primary mine production
Independent compilations anchored in the World Silver Survey and USGS place 2024–2025 mine production in a narrow band: the Silver Institute reports global mine output around 819.7 million ounces in 2024 with modest year‑on‑year gains into 2025 driven largely by Mexican and some US increases, and the USGS records world mined silver at about 25,000 tonnes in 2024—consistent with roughly 800–820 Moz of annual mined silver [2] [1] [3]. Industry commentaries and tracking sites place 2025–2026 estimates in the same ballpark—between roughly 813 Moz and the mid‑800s Moz—reflecting little slack in primary supply [6] [8] [9].
2. Credible baseline numbers for recycling (secondary) supply
The World Silver Survey and derived industry summaries converge on recycled silver of about 180–195 million ounces in recent years, with 2024 recycling reported at a 12‑year high of about 193.9 Moz and 2025 projections rounding to roughly 195 Moz; several industry writeups note recycling rose 6% in 2024 but is expected to be broadly flat into 2025 absent large collection or technology shifts [1] [2] [4]. Independent commentators and sector analyses also use a recycled‑share estimate around 18–20% of total supply for 2025–26, which matches those absolute figures [10] [5].
3. Combined supply and the resulting deficits through 2026
Summing primary and secondary volumes gives total annual supply near 1.0–1.03 billion ounces in 2024–26, while reported demand estimates in 2024–25 range from roughly 1.17–1.24 billion ounces—hence ongoing annual deficits [4] [5] [9]. The Silver Institute and industry summaries quantify meaningful shortfalls: for example, 2025’s shortfall is cited as one of the largest recent gaps (roughly triple‑digit millions of ounces) and some market commentators model an annual deficit persisting into 2026 that could be as large as ~117 Moz (Silver Institute summary) to much larger figures (~200 Moz) under aggressive demand scenarios [6] [11] [9].
4. How sensitive are these flows to price — the limits on mine response
Multiple authoritative sources emphasize that primary silver’s price elasticity is low because most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, lead and zinc operations; base‑metal mine investment decisions and ore grades—not silver price—drive output timing, so even large price moves cannot rapidly add hundreds of millions of ounces of primary supply [5] [8] [9]. Analysts note that new primary projects take many years to develop and declining ore grades further blunt any swift supply response, which means mine production is structurally inelastic in the 1–2 year horizon [5] [8].
5. How sensitive is recycling to price — more responsive but constrained
Recycling is more price‑sensitive: higher silver prices incentivize collection and the processing of industrial scrap and end‑of‑life electronics and account for much of the year‑on‑year increases observed, but it is constrained by available feedstock, logistics and technology—photographic scrap is shrinking and collected industrial scrap can only scale so far—so recycling can rise incrementally (tens of millions ounces) but cannot immediately replace large primary shortfalls [4] [7] [10].
6. Bottom line and dissenting scenarios
The strongest, source‑backed reading: expect primary mine output ~800–835 Moz and recycling ~180–195 Moz through 2026 with total supply ≈1.0–1.03 billion ounces, meaning persistent deficits under current demand profiles; price can nudge recycling and some marginal production but cannot rapidly fix a structural shortfall because of byproduct dynamics and long project lead times, though more aggressive scenarios from market participants model deficits up to ~200 Moz if demand surges or export controls tighten [1] [2] [6] [11]. Reporting limitations: precise 2026 outturns will hinge on evolving demand (not all demand estimates are uniform) and policy events—those contingencies appear in the sources but cannot be resolved here [11] [5].