What share of US tariff revenue in 2025 comes from imports from China and other key countries?
Executive summary
U.S. tariff collections surged in 2025, with sources reporting fiscal-year customs duties of roughly $165–205 billion through mid/late 2025 and monthly collections rising to over $30 billion by September (figures vary by outlet) [1] [2] [3]. Multiple trackers and analysts say China is the largest single source of tariff revenue — “nearly one‑third” in one visualization — while other major contributors include Mexico, Canada and a shifting roster of countries subject to new reciprocal and IEEPA tariffs [4] [5] [6].
1. China: the single biggest contributor
Data compilers and visualizations published in 2025 identify imports from China as the single largest source of U.S. tariff receipts, driven by both the large import volume from China and the high, trade‑weighted effective tariff rates applied to Chinese goods [5] [4]. Visual Capitalist’s analysis states that nearly one‑third of U.S. tariff revenue is collected on imports originating from China, attributing that share to a trade‑weighted tariff rate of about 47.3% and projected Chinese contribution of roughly $205.2 billion against a $703.9 billion total in their exercise [4]. Bipartisan Policy Center’s Tariff Tracker similarly flags duties on Chinese goods as the largest single source without publishing an identical percentage in the snippet provided [5].
2. How big is “tariff revenue” in 2025 overall?
Different organizations report different aggregates. USAFacts cited U.S. Treasury data showing FY2025 customs duties reaching $165.2 billion as of August 2025, a 136.7% year‑over‑year jump [1]. Other research groups and modelers report higher cumulative or projected totals for 2025—e.g., Tax Foundation and related trackers cite figures like $205 billion collected through October 2025 or larger multi‑year projections—reflecting differing methods, scopes (preliminary vs. final), and whether estimates include newly announced but partial‑year tariffs [2] [7]. The Penn Wharton and Yale labs also compile effective‑rate and revenue estimates that diverge because of behavioral assumptions and legal uncertainty [8] [9].
3. Other key countries: Mexico, Canada and beyond
Analysts show Mexico and Canada are now significant tariff revenue sources after 2025 policy changes. Visual Capitalist and other trackers list Mexico and Canada as the second‑ and third‑largest contributors in some tallies, while the administration’s reciprocal tariffs explicitly raised rates on non‑USMCA‑compliant Mexican and Canadian goods (25% on many Mexican products, 35% on many Canadian products in some reporting) [4] [6]. Marketplace reported roughly $195 billion in total 2025 tariff revenue, saying about $120 billion came from the administration’s new tariff policies and naming Brazil, India and the U.K. among countries facing rates of 10–50% [10]. Exact percentage shares by country vary across sources and depend on assumptions about exemptions, exclusions and year‑to‑date timing.
4. Why published shares differ so much
Differences stem from methodology: some tallies apply announced rates to 2024 import values to approximate fiscal impact (pre‑substitution), while others use Treasury daily/monthly collections or model behavioral shifts and legal outcomes. Visual Capitalist’s “nearly one‑third” figure comes from applying trade‑weighted rates to recent import flows [4]. Bipartisan Policy Center and PIIE trackers use U.S. Treasury daily statements and USITC DataWeb to show evolving country compositions [5] [11]. Penn Wharton and Tax Policy Center recalculations incorporate effective rate changes and behavioral responses, producing divergent dollar and percentage totals [8] [12].
5. Legal, behavioral and timing caveats that matter
Several major sources warn that legal rulings, exemptions and importer behavior materially change realized revenue. Courts have reviewed IEEPA tariffs, and several outlets observe that if tariffs are struck down or narrowed the revenue picture would shrink substantially [2] [13]. Analysts also note importers shifted purchasing and compliance behavior in 2025, reducing what would have been collected under static assumptions; Penn Wharton estimated revenues would have been about $24.4 billion higher absent behavioral changes between January and August [8]. Journalists and budget shops emphasize that headline tariff rates overstate actual effective collection rates once exclusions and shipping/insurance are considered [11].
6. Bottom line and where to look next
Available sources consistently name China as the largest single source of 2025 tariff revenue and indicate other major contributors include Mexico and Canada, but estimates of exact shares diverge: Visual Capitalist reports “nearly one‑third” for China using a trade‑weighted projection [4]; Treasury‑based trackers and budget analysts produce different dollar totals [1] [8]. For the clearest, regularly updated country shares consult data series that tie Treasury Daily/Monthly statements to USITC country import values (as Bipartisan Policy Center and PIIE do) and watch for legal rulings and administrative exemptions that will change realized shares [5] [11] [13]. Available sources do not mention a single government‑published breakdown that fixes exact 2025 percentage shares by country for the full year.