Index/Organizations/Penn Wharton Budget Model

Penn Wharton Budget Model

Micro-simulation model

Fact-Checks

128 results
Nov 22, 2025
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How much has Trump increased the federal deficit for 2025

President Trump’s first year in office saw the federal deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2025 come in around $1.8 trillion — roughly $41 billion smaller than FY2024 according to Treasury and CBO-era report...

Dec 10, 2025
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How do 2025 deportation rates compare by nationality and immigration status to 2021–2024?

Deportations rose sharply in 2024 and remained high into 2025, with ICE reporting roughly 271,000 removals in FY2024 and multiple analysts estimating 2025 removals in the hundreds of thousands—Migrati...

Dec 17, 2025
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Have a he Tariffs this year reduced the national debt?

Tariff collections jumped to roughly $195–$250 billion in FY2025 and helped shave the 2025 budget deficit, but available reporting shows they did not meaningfully reduce the $38+ trillion national deb...

Nov 16, 2025

what has trump done good

Donald Trump’s administrations and campaigns have advanced a mix of policies supporters point to as successes — tax cuts, deregulation, tougher trade and immigration stances, and Middle East diplomacy...

Nov 28, 2025

What is the projected number of US deportations for 2026?

Available reporting and official data do not give a single, uncontested projected total for U.S. deportations in 2026; instead they offer competing estimates and policy signals ranging from specific a...

Dec 3, 2025

How much did US tariff revenue total in 2025 year-to-date and full-year estimates?

The U.S. collected roughly $165–195 billion in tariff (customs duties) revenue in fiscal year 2025, with year‑to‑date calendar‑year or partial‑year tallies varying by source and cutoffs: Treasury and ...

Nov 17, 2025

What are the projected total US deportations for 2025?

Official and journalistic sources show wide, sometimes conflicting figures for 2025 removals: the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced “more than 527,000 deportations” through October 27, 2...

Jan 13, 2026

how much tariff revenue was collected by US in 2025?

Multiple reputable trackers and government releases report very large—but not identical—tariff receipts for 2025, with headline figures clustered roughly between $179 billion and $236 billion dependin...

Dec 1, 2025

What things did Joe Biden pass to help the economy and society when he was president

Joe Biden’s presidency enacted large economic and social initiatives including the American Rescue Plan, the CHIPS and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and expanded health and drug-cost measur...

Dec 2, 2025

How does 2025 US tariff revenue compare to 2024 and prior years historically?

Fiscal 2025 saw tariff receipts surge to roughly $165–195 billion (Treasury-based and reporting sources vary), more than double FY2024’s ~$77 billion and several times the typical pre-2025 annual coll...

Dec 17, 2025

How much in tariff revenue did the U.S. collect from 2019 through 2024, by year?

Official, public-source tallies show U.S. customs (tariff) receipts rose sharply after the 2018–19 trade actions and fluctuated thereafter: commonly cited figures include roughly $70–90 billion per ye...

Oct 3, 2025

What is the estimated annual cost of illegal immigration to US taxpayers?

The estimated annual fiscal impact of unauthorized immigration to U.S. taxpayers varies widely because analysts use different definitions and methods; prominent recent estimates range from a to a , wh...

Dec 16, 2025

The United States has collected more than $200 billion in tariffs this year

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) says it collected “more than $200 billion” in tariffs this calendar year as of Dec. 15, 2025 . Independent trackers and budget analysts show a range of estimat...

Nov 8, 2025

is president donald trump reducing the federal budget deficit in any meaningful way?

President Donald Trump’s administration has produced in the fiscal year 2025 deficit compared with 2024, driven largely by tariff revenue and short‑term spending patterns, but the and long‑term projec...

Dec 12, 2025

how much has the government spent on deportation programs per deportee in 2025

Estimates of government spending per deportee in 2025 vary widely: the Department of Homeland Security gives an average “arrest, detain and remove” cost of $17,121 per deportee (cited by DHS and multi...

Nov 1, 2025

Do illegal immigrants provide a net positive or net negative impact on the US economy?

Undocumented immigration presents a net-positive impact on the U.S. economy in aggregate under most mainstream models, but significant mean impacts vary across groups and policies. Widely cited empiri...

Dec 20, 2025

What were annual excess death totals in the US for 2017–2024 and how do they compare by administration?

Best-available public analyses show a troubling rise in U.S. excess deaths from 2017 through 2024: a pre‑pandemic gap already evident in 2017, a massive spike during 2020–2021, and persistently elevat...

Dec 17, 2025

How do US tariff collections in 2025 compare to previous years and historical peaks?

U.S. tariff collections surged in 2025 well above recent years: multiple trackers and government statements put fiscal‑year 2025 customs duties between roughly $195 billion and more than $200 billion,...

Dec 21, 2025

Have Trump’s tariffs brought trillions of dollars to the US ?

Projections from multiple independent policy shops show that the second Trump administration’s tariff program is expected to raise several trillion dollars in federal receipts over the coming decade o...

Dec 9, 2025

How much did federal debt increase during Donald Trump's 2025 fiscal policies?

Federal debt measured as the gross national debt climbed through 2025 as the Trump administration enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and related policies; reporting shows the headline nati...