Which European countries saw the largest increases or decreases in rape reports since 2023 and what factors explain them?
Executive summary
Eurostat reports that police-recorded sexual violence in the EU rose 79.2% from 2013 to 2023 and that rape offences more than doubled (a 141% increase) in that period; in 2023 the EU recorded 91,370 rape offences, a 7% rise on 2022 [1] [2]. National trends vary: some countries saw sharp increases in reports (Spain, Ireland, Czechia among those highlighted by EDJNet), while a few—Poland, Bulgaria and Lithuania—saw reported rape figures fall in recent comparisons [3] [4].
1. Big-picture shifts: rising reports, not necessarily rising incidence
Police-recorded sexual violence and rape across the EU increased substantially between 2013 and 2023: Eurostat shows a 79.2% rise in sexual violence offences and a 141% increase in recorded rape offences over that decade, with 91,370 rape offences recorded in 2023 (a 7% rise on 2022) [1] [2]. Analysts and EU agencies warn these administrative figures mainly reflect reporting and recording changes rather than clean measures of true incidence [2] [5]. The European Commission and EIGE stress limits of comparability because definitions, police practices and reporting rates differ between countries [2] [5].
2. Which countries show the largest increases since 2023 — and why the headline numbers can mislead
Journalistic and data projects flag large recent increases in particular countries: EDJNet notes big upticks in Spain and Czechia for 2021–2022 and that Ireland’s recorded female rape rate was far above the small-country average in 2022 [3] [6]. Eurostat’s EU aggregate rise in 2023 (7% for rape versus 2022) reflects concentrated rises in several member states, though Eurostat cautions that changes are “closely connected to raising awareness” and recording practice shifts [2] [1]. World Population Review and other compilations that single out the UK or others are repeatedly cited but have provoked fact-checking warnings: DW’s fact check found UK numbers are shaped by reporting and legal definitions and warned against cross‑country rank claims without context [7] [8].
3. Countries with falling reports: Poland, Bulgaria, Lithuania (and Greece’s 2023 dip)
Not all countries followed the EU upward trend. The European Parliamentary Research Service summary flags that reported rapes decreased in Poland, Bulgaria and Lithuania in recent comparisons [4]. EDJNet’s country-level work also shows Greece had large rises in 2021–22 but a fall in 2023 (a reported −21.62% in one series), though the investigation cautioned about unknown drivers behind that 2023 decline [3].
4. The strongest explanatory factors seen in reporting and analysis
Three recurrent explanations appear across sources: legal change (move to consent-based laws), changes in recording practices, and social/cultural shifts that increase reporting. Academic reviews documented a wave of consent-based rape law reforms—20 European countries had such laws by May 2023—which broadens legal definitions and can increase recorded offences [9]. Eurostat and EIGE explicitly link rising police figures to greater awareness, reporting and recording changes rather than a simple increase in criminal behaviour [2] [5]. Media fact-checking likewise points to #MeToo, high-profile cases and police recording reforms as drivers of higher recorded numbers [8].
5. Competing interpretations and political uses of the data
Data are politically charged: some commentators use headline rises to argue for tougher border/crime policies while advocates and researchers see rises as evidence of better victim recognition and legal protection. LegalInsurrection cites consent-law adoption as a main driver of rising reports [10], while EU institutions frame increases as linked to awareness and recording practice [2] [5]. Independent fact-checkers warn that simple cross-country comparisons (e.g., “the UK is the rape capital of Europe”) are misleading without adjusting for legal definitions and reporting practices [8].
6. What the sources do not tell us and why that matters
Available sources emphasize reporting and legal-change effects; they do not provide a definitive, uniform measure of incident prevalence across countries, nor do they give fully harmonized post‑2023 victimization survey data to settle true incidence differences [5] [1]. Detailed causal attribution for country-level year-to-year changes—beyond broad links to law, recording and awareness—is not established in the cited reporting [3] [4]. Claims about causation not present in these sources should be treated as unverified: available sources do not mention firm causal proof that migration, prostitution law changes, or single events explain particular national trends in 2023 unless those are explicitly studied (p2_s6 notes prostitution law research generally but not tied to 2023 national shifts).
7. Bottom line for readers
Use caution when reading country rankings: increases in recorded rape in Europe since 2023 are significant in aggregate (91,370 offences in 2023; EU rises of 5.5% in sexual violence and 7% in rape versus 2022; 79.2% sexual-violence growth since 2013), but national rises or falls frequently reflect legal definitions, consent-law reform, police-recording changes and higher reporting driven by awareness campaigns rather than uniform changes in underlying prevalence [2] [1] [9]. For firm conclusions about real incidence shifts, researchers point to the need for harmonized victimization surveys and clearer, comparable recording standards across states [5].