What are russias goals in the Ukraine war
Executive summary
Russia entered its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 with a mix of public rationales—protecting Russian-speakers in Donetsk and Luhansk, “demilitarising” and “denazifying” Ukraine, and preventing NATO expansion—and private or strategic aims that include regime change, territorial annexation and rolling back Ukraine’s westward orientation [1] [2] [3]. Analysts and institutions judge Moscow’s objectives have been both expansive and shifting: stated aims narrowed at times toward control of Donbas and securing a land corridor to Crimea, while deeper imperial ambitions and the goal of subordinating Ukraine remain evident in other reporting [4] [5] [6].
1. Stated Kremlin justifications: protection, demilitarisation and "denazification"
In public speeches and state media, President Vladimir Putin framed the operation as protection for residents of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a mission to “demilitarise and denazify” Ukraine, and a response to alleged threats posed by NATO expansion—rhetoric Moscow used to justify the invasion to domestic and international audiences [1] [7] [2].
2. Immediate political objectives: regime change and enforced neutrality
Multiple Western analyses conclude that an early, explicit Russian objective was to overthrow or neutralise Kyiv’s pro‑Western government and force Ukraine into neutrality—demands that would bar NATO or EU accession and re‑embed Kyiv in Moscow’s security orbit [3] [2] [4].
3. Territorial goals: annexation, consolidation of Donbas, and a Crimea land-bridge
Beyond rhetoric, Moscow pursued concrete territorial aims: recognising and defending the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk entities, annexing or attempting to seize additional southern and eastern provinces, and securing a physical corridor connecting Russian territory to occupied Crimea—all steps consistent with annexation and consolidation objectives reported by think tanks and battlefield assessments [8] [4] [6].
4. Broader strategic aim: rolling back Western influence and reshaping European security
Russia’s 2021–22 ultimatums and continuing Kremlin statements indicate a strategic desire to alter the European security architecture—specifically to block NATO’s eastward expansion and to coerce concessions that would reduce Western military presence and influence near Russia’s borders [2] [6].
5. Hidden or longer-term ambitions: imperial revisionism and ending Ukrainian statehood
Academic and policy analyses argue the invasion also reflects imperialist ambitions to reassert control over former imperial territories and, at extremes, to undermine Ukrainian statehood itself; authors point to Putin’s historical narratives about a shared Russian‑Ukrainian identity and to Kremlin rhetoric about “returning” lands as evidence of expansionist intent beyond narrow security claims [5] [9].
6. How goals evolved under battlefield realities and messaging gaps
Moscow’s objectives proved inconsistent over time: Russian official statements sometimes failed to present a coherent campaign plan, and independent studies note deviations between declared aims and operational behaviour—leading analysts to conclude that goals narrowed when initial rapid conquest failed and that military imperatives reshaped political aims on the ground [10] [4].
7. The interplay of military aims and political bargaining
Operational reporting shows Russian forces sought specific tactical milestones (seizing terrain around Lyman, expanding footholds in the Donbas), while political leaders used these advances to strengthen bargaining positions—demonstrating that territorial gains and battlefield pressure have been both ends and means in pursuing Moscow’s wider objectives [11] [6].
8. Competing narratives, agendas and the limits of open reporting
Western intelligence, academic studies and Russian statements offer conflicting pictures: U.S. and European agencies warn Moscow remains committed to maximalist aims including subjugation or greater annexations, while Russian sources present defensive rationales; open-source reporting illuminates many aims but cannot perfectly reveal Kremlin inner deliberations or future intentions, a gap analysts consistently flag [12] [10].