What are the most recent estimates of the total undocumented immigrant population in the U.S. by race and Hispanic origin (2020–2025)?

1. Where the headline totals stand: a contested range

MPI’s recent profile uses pooled American Community Survey and related microdata to produce an estimate of about 11.4 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States (weighted to 2023 estimates) and supplies demographic profiles that include race and Hispanic origin ^{[1] [8]}; CMS analysts have produced provisional estimates in the 11.7–12.2 million range for mid‑2023 depending on methodology ^[2]. By contrast, Pew Research Center reported a markedly higher estimate — an all‑time high of about 14 million unauthorized immigrants in 2023 — and released detailed population estimates by age, sex and race/Hispanic origin as part of its 2025 reporting package ^{[3] [7]}. Separately, an analysis of the January 2025 CPS reweighting suggested as many as roughly 15.4 million “illegal” immigrants in that survey snapshot, underscoring how month, survey and weighting choices shift totals ^[4]. Secondary compilations note an overall 2025 plausible envelope roughly from about 10.5 million up to as much as 18.6 million across methodologies, illustrating the measurement uncertainty during a period of rapid policy change ^[5].

2. What the sources say about race and Hispanic origin (and what they don’t)

All of the major research producers referenced — MPI, CMS and Pew — provide breakdowns by race and Hispanic origin in their data tools and reports, with Pew explicitly publishing 2023 estimates by race and Hispanic origin and MPI/CMS offering profile tools and Hispanic‑focused briefs, respectively ^{[7] [1] [6]}. However, the sources compiled here do not supply a single, harmonized numerical table to quote without risk: each organization’s count of, for example, Hispanic or “White, non‑Hispanic” unauthorized immigrants depends on the underlying population total, inclusion of temporary parolees or TPS holders, and imputation rules, so subgroup shares shift between MPI/CMS and Pew ^{[1] [6] [7]}.

3. Why the estimates diverge: methods, timing, and politics

Divergence stems from methodological choices — the residual approach built on Census/ACS microdata, CPS reweighting, and alternative statistical imputations — and from how researchers treat temporarily protected populations such as parolees, TPS beneficiaries, and pending asylum applicants; MPI and CMS explicitly describe imputation rules and inclusion of liminal statuses, while Pew and CPS‑based analysts rely on other adjustments ^{[1] [6] [2]}. Critics and observers also point out that residual methods require assumptions about undercount and outmigration that are debated in the literature, meaning political actors and advocacy groups can amplify the estimate that best fits their priorities ^{[9] [10]}. Policy changes in 2024–2025 — parole program pauses, asylum processing changes, and heightened enforcement — further altered flows and protections, producing rapid shifts in snapshots and making cross‑year comparisons fraught ^{[3] [11]}.

4. Practical conclusion for readers seeking numeric breakdowns

For a defensible, up‑to‑date answer: treat unauthorized population totals for 2023–2025 as a bounded estimate rather than a single point — most mainstream analyses center between roughly 11 and 15 million, with Pew at about 14 million for 2023 and MPI/CMS clustering near 11–12 million; the January 2025 CPS reweighting produces a higher snapshot near 15.4 million ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}. For precise counts by race and Hispanic origin, consult the underlying Pew, MPI and CMS data tools and briefs, which provide the subgroup tabulations alongside methodological notes so readers can choose the estimate that aligns with their definitional priorities ^{[7] [8] [6]}.