How would ending birthright citizenship affect the number of stateless persons in the U.S. according to demographic models?
Executive summary
Demographic projection models from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and Penn State show that ending birthright citizenship would substantially increase the size of the U.S. unauthorized population by millions over coming decades, but those models do not provide a precise headcount of newly stateless persons; legal scholars and advocacy groups warn that some children born in the U.S. could become stateless under a changed jus soli regime, though most affected children might instead be unauthorized rather than stateless [1] [2] [3]. The practical effect, therefore, is twofold: a large, modeled rise in unauthorized residents and a smaller—but legally and morally consequential—risk of statelessness concentrated among children whose parents’ countries do not transmit citizenship abroad [4] [5].
1. How models translate policy change into population shifts
MPI and Penn State used demographic methods to translate a hypothetical end to automatic citizenship for children of unauthorized or temporary-status parents into population forecasts and conclude the unauthorized population would be larger by roughly 2.7 million in 2045 and 5.4 million by 2075 than under current law, a result driven by children born in the U.S. who would no longer acquire citizenship at birth and who would therefore be counted as unauthorized in the models [1] [2].
2. What those models count — and what they do not
Those projections are explicit about their object of estimation: unauthorized population size and its demographic dynamics; they do not attempt to directly estimate the number of persons who would become legally stateless as a discrete category, because statelessness depends on whether children can claim parental nationality under foreign laws and on diplomatic relationships and administrative processes not captured by population projection methodologies [4] [2].
3. Legal and scholarly warnings about statelessness risk
Legal scholars and advocacy organizations stress that ending birthright citizenship would create conditions in which some U.S.-born children could be rendered stateless if no other country recognizes them as nationals—an outcome flagged by the Brennan Center, the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, and SSRN legal analysis as a realistic and serious risk for at least a subset of affected children [5] [6] [3].
4. How many might be stateless?—the evidence and the uncertainty
Experts who have weighed the issue conclude that truly stateless cases would likely be a minority of the children newly denied U.S. citizenship, because many countries allow transmission of nationality by descent; however, the exact number is highly uncertain and contingent on the nationalities of parents, the specifics of foreign nationality law, and how administrative systems handle registrations—factors outside the scope of demographic projection models and therefore not quantified in the MPI–Penn State forecasts [7] [3] [5].
5. Downstream consequences beyond the headcount
Even if demographic models do not show a flood of stateless people numerically, multiple policy reports warn of systemic harms: the creation of a multi‑generational underclass, reduced access to services, and legal limbo for U.S.-born children who are unauthorized or stateless—outcomes emphasized by MPI, First Focus on Children, and UCLA research as long-term social and developmental costs not captured by simple population totals [1] [8] [9].
6. Limitations, contested assumptions, and political context
The projections assume specific policy contours—denial of citizenship to children of unauthorized and temporary-status parents—and make demographic assumptions about fertility, migration, and retention; they also assume varying enforcement regimes, and MPI notes even extreme border sealing would not prevent the modeled increase in unauthorized residents, underscoring the robustness of the demographic impulse even as the precise stateless count remains legally and empirically unsettled [2] [4]. Opponents of these findings argue constitutional and practical hurdles make broad repeal unlikely or would limit impact, an argument reflected in litigation and constitutional analysis cited in contemporary reporting [6] [10].
Bottom line
Demographic models predict millions more unauthorized residents if birthright citizenship ends, but they do not produce a reliable numeric estimate of how many U.S.-born people would be rendered stateless; legal scholarship and advocacy sources insist the risk of statelessness is real and potentially severe for some children, while also acknowledging that fully stateless cases would likely be a subset of the larger, model‑projected increase in unauthorized population [1] [2] [3].