欧洲选举
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Executive summary
The 2024 European Parliament elections, held across EU member states between 6–9 June 2024, produced a clear shift to the right in many national delegations while centre-right to centre-left pro‑EU blocs retained a working majority in the new Parliament [1] [2] [3]. The vote reshaped national politics in key states — notably France and Germany — and altered the balance among parliamentary groups, even as fears that populists would dominate proved overstated [4] [5] [6].
1. What happened: the headline results and seat math
Voters in the 27 EU countries delivered gains for centre‑right parties and for nationalist and hard‑right groupings, producing a Parliament with more seats overall (the total increased by 15 to 720) and a strengthened European People’s Party alongside growth for nationalist factions, though pro‑EU groups from centre‑right to centre‑left combined continued to hold a majority [3] [7] [2].
2. Who won and who lost: national stories that changed the map
National contests drove the narrative: France’s far‑right Rassemblement National topped the poll and prompted President Macron to dissolve the French National Assembly and call snap parliamentary elections, while in Germany the AfD made significant gains leading to setbacks for the governing Social Democrats and a right‑leaning vote share above 45% across parties in some reports [4] [5] [3]. Elsewhere the Greens and some liberal groups underperformed relative to earlier expectations, with losses particularly noted in Germany for green parties [3] [4].
3. The parliamentary grouping shake‑up: new alliances and shifting centre ground
Following the elections, some formerly separate nationalist formations reconfigured — the far‑right ID group briefly dissolved and a new “Patriots for Europe” formation appeared including large parties such as France’s National Rally, Hungary’s Fidesz and Italy’s Lega — while the ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) grew and overtook Renew Europe in size after some national delegations joined it [7] [8]. Despite these moves, the aggregate of mainstream pro‑integration groups remained sufficient to elect key posts and to continue exerting agenda control [2] [1].
4. Institutional consequences: Commission presidency and parliamentary posts
The new Parliament re‑elected Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission in July 2024, confirming continuity at the executive level despite the electoral shifts [8]. Internal distribution of parliamentary committee chairs and Vice‑Presidencies adjusted to reflect the new relative numerical strengths of groups, including increased representation for ECR nominees in posts where they had previously been excluded [2].
5. Why it matters: policy direction and national ripple effects
Electoral emphasis on migration, security and cost‑of‑living issues shifted the policy agenda and dented momentum for some green and regulatory initiatives; observers warned the EPP and other mainstream parties may continue to moderate climate ambitions and adapt to popular concerns about sovereignty and migration, with consequences for EU legislation over the next five years [4] [6]. The vote also acted as a series of national referendums on incumbent governments, with immediate domestic consequences — for example, France’s snap election and strains on Germany’s coalition — demonstrating how EU‑level votes feed back into national politics [5] [4].
6. Caveats, data limits and what reporting does not settle
Quantitative projections and group compositions cited here rely on official EU results and aggregations published after voting, as well as post‑election group realignments; some sources note provisional or projected status pending formal verification by the newly seated Parliament and national authorities [1] [9]. Analyses differ on the long‑term scale of far‑right influence — commentators emphasize notable gains but stop short of predicting domination of EU institutions, and forecasts about legislative outcomes depend on future coalition bargaining not fully visible in election returns alone [6] [2].