How many illegals are in the country today
Executive summary
Current authoritative estimates of the number of people living in the United States without legal immigration status cluster roughly between about 11 million and 14 million, but alternative methodologies and partisan analyses produce higher figures—some as high as roughly 18–22 million—so any single “exact” number is contested and depends on method and assumptions [1] [2] [3] [4]. Measurement challenges, recent policy changes and shifts in net migration mean the best answer is a range and an explanation of why estimates diverge [5] [6].
1. Official and consensus research estimates: about 11–14 million
Leading academic and research centers that use residual survey methods and updated Census inputs currently estimate the unauthorized (undocumented/illegal) population at roughly 11 to 14 million people: Migration Research/Center for Migration Studies and similar approaches yield estimates near 11 million [1] [7], while the Pew Research Center incorporated revised Census migration figures and reported a record 14 million in 2023 [2] [8]; these are the figures most often cited by mainstream analysts.
2. Higher estimates from alternative models: 18–22 million and why they differ
Some researchers and advocacy or policy groups produce substantially larger numbers—FAIR calculated about 18.6 million in 2025 while a 2018 Yale-affiliated demographic model estimated 22.1 million—because they rely on operational data, different baseline assumptions about undercount, visa overstays, enforcement removals, and demographic flows rather than the conventional residual survey method [4] [3]. Those higher numbers highlight that methodological choices—how to account for undercount, which administrative data to include, and assumptions about departures and deaths—drive large swings in estimates [5].
3. Why estimates move quickly now: Census revisions, policy changes, and court/enforcement activity
Recent Census Bureau revisions to international migration inputs and fast-moving policy changes—revocations of temporary protections, mass parole events, and expanded enforcement projected in policy and budget analyses—have altered both the flow and the classification of people in the population, prompting revisions upward in some counts and projections of lowered net migration going forward [2] [6] [9]. The Congressional Budget Office and Brookings emphasize that changes in enforcement and removals affect net immigration projections and therefore population estimates, but those are projections rather than direct head counts [6] [10].
4. Measurement caveats and why no single “illegal count” is definitive
Estimating a hidden population is intrinsically uncertain: residual methods subtract known legal residents from survey totals and adjust for undercounts, while demographic/operational models add flows and removals; both approaches require assumptions about underreporting, voluntary departures, removals, and visa overstays—areas where data are incomplete or interpreted differently—so researchers explicitly provide ranges rather than exact tallies [5] [11]. Government data series such as DHS/OHSS produce historical tabulations but stop short of reconciling all methodological disputes [12].
5. Interpreting the range: pragmatic takeaway and contested agendas
Practically, the balance of mainstream demographic research points to roughly 11–14 million unauthorized residents today, but credible alternative estimates argue for materially higher counts; stakeholders often emphasize numbers that fit policy goals—advocacy groups or restrictionist organizations may spotlight larger figures to press for action, while others stress survey-based lower estimates to argue for nuance—so readers must weigh methodology and motive when citing any number [1] [2] [4] [3]. Reporting that simply repeats a single headline figure without noting method risks misinforming; the responsible statement is a qualified range tied to the approach used [5].