What were monthly Border Patrol apprehension trends from 2009–2016 and how do they compare to later administrations?

1. The 2009–2016 arc: steady decline from earlier peaks

Between 2009 and 2016 Border Patrol monthly totals mostly reflected a longer downward trajectory that began in the mid‑2000s after the historic peak of roughly 1.6 million apprehensions in FY2000; by FY2016 annual apprehensions had fallen to about 408,870, and monthly figures during 2009–2016 were generally far lower than the turn‑of‑the‑century highs ^{[1] [5]}. Analysts and agencies treated CBP apprehension counts as an imperfect proxy for unauthorized migration but accepted that the mid‑2000s decline was real and persistent through 2016 ^{[1] [6]}.

2. Seasonality and monthly patterns within 2009–2016

Month‑to‑month variation in 2009–2016 followed familiar migration seasonality, with spring months often showing higher crossings — a pattern visible in historical CBP monthly series and cited in contemporary fact‑checks that point to occasional spikes (for example March comparisons) even amid the overall downward trend ^[1]. Reporting at the time highlighted sharp month‑over‑month increases as newsworthy, but long‑term context showed that those spikes returned counts to levels seen in 2016 rather than to earlier eras’ peaks ^[1].

3. Changing composition: more families and children by 2017, roots in 2016 trends

By 2016–2017 the composition of those encountered shifted: family units and unaccompanied children rose sharply, culminating in 2017 when families and children represented an unprecedented share of apprehensions — a change from the 2003–2009 period when such groups were a tiny fraction ^[7]. That compositional shift altered monthly operational pressures on Border Patrol because family and child encounters require different processing and services than single adult apprehensions ^[7].

4. Why later comparisons are tricky: policy and counting changes after 2016

Comparing 2009–2016 monthly data to later administrations requires caution because CBP began reporting combined categories and different encounter types after March FY2020 — specifically, statistics began to include Title 42 expulsions along with Title 8 apprehensions — which changes the numerator and complicates direct month‑to‑month comparisons across administrations ^{[2] [3]}. Separately, scholars and the CRS noted that migrants’ behavior changed in recent years, with many seeking out USBP agents to request asylum rather than evading detection — a behavioral shift that inflates encounters relative to prior periods even if unauthorized entries did not rise proportionally ^[4].

5. Alternative explanations and methodological caveats

Some scholars argue that enforcement intensity itself affects apprehension counts: as Border Patrol capacity and budget grew, so did captured encounters, producing a feedback loop in which more resources yield more apprehensions rather than proving greater unauthorized inflow (a structural critique rooted in migration‑enforcement research) ^[8]. Fact‑checking organizations and migration researchers likewise emphasize that single‑month spikes should be judged against long‑run trends and counting changes to avoid exaggerated narratives about a sudden “crisis” ^{[1] [6]}.

6. Bottom line for comparisons across administrations

From 2009–2016 monthly Border Patrol counts mostly tracked a downward long‑term trend with seasonal peaks and evolving migrant composition, culminating in substantially lower monthly and annual totals than the 2000 peak ^{[1] [5]}. Later administrations show higher encounter totals in some years (notably FY2021) and very different monthly profiles, but those differences are entangled with policy tools (e.g., Title 42 expulsions) and behavioral changes among migrants that limit straightforward month‑by‑month comparisons ^{[4] [2]}.