Who are the top candidates in December 2025 special election polls?

1. Why the headlines focus on Van Epps vs. Behn — and why that matters

The reporting repeatedly surfaces Matt Van Epps (R) and Aftyn Behn (D) as the top-ticket names tied to the December special in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, reflecting party nomination processes and media attention rather than definitive public-opinion margins. The available fact-check summaries and election roundups list these two as principal candidates while noting several independent or third-party filings—Terri/ Teresa Christie, Robert Sutherby, Jon/ Jonathan Thorp, and Bobby Dodge—whose presence complicates ballot projections and vote-splitting scenarios ^{[1] [2] [4]}. The emphasis in these sources is on who is on the ballot and certified, not on replicable pre-election polling numbers, which leaves predictive claims unsubstantiated by contemporaneous polls ^[2].

2. Texas 18th’s crowded field: Menefee and Edwards leading, Jones and Montiel in the mix

Separate coverage consolidates a different competitive narrative in Texas’s 18th Congressional District special context where Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards are named as leading contenders, with Jolanda Jones and Carmen Montiel noted as significant challengers. One source specifically attributes a Menefee lead at about 27% in one reported snapshot, and also describes a narrowing toward a potential runoff between Menefee and Edwards in that Democratic-leaning contest ^{[3] [5]}. The reporting underscores intra-party dynamics and the possibility of runoffs, which matters more in forecasting than single cross-party head-to-head polls, yet independent verification of that specific percentage or its methodology is not provided in the supplied set ^[3].

3. What the sources do agree on — and where they sharply diverge

Across the supplied analyses there is clear agreement on which names are prominent in these scheduled December contests: Van Epps and Behn in Tennessee; Menefee, Edwards, Jones, and Montiel in Texas. The point of divergence lies in certainty and depth: several summaries explicitly state there are no robust, contemporaneous public-opinion polls available for the December special elections, warning that predictions are therefore tentative ^{[2] [5]}. Another point of divergence is the treatment of minor/independent candidates—some reports list multiple independents as likely ballot participants, while others exclude them or note certification and filing deadline differences that change who appears on official ballots ^{[1] [4]}.

4. The missing piece: polling methodology, timing, and certification effects

The supplied material repeatedly flags that polling data is limited and that apparent candidate lists sometimes reflect pre-certification filings rather than finalized ballots. That matters because certification updates and filing deadlines can add or remove names, altering turnout dynamics and potential vote splitting—especially in a special-election, low-turnout environment where even small third-party vote shares can swing outcomes ^{[1] [2]}. None of the available pieces publishes a transparent, dated poll series for these specific December contests, leaving observers reliant on candidate rosters, past election baselines, and party organizational signals rather than contemporaneous, methodologically documented polls ^[2].

5. How to interpret media emphasis and possible agendas

The coverage’s focus on particular head-to-head matchups and the recurrent listing of certain names suggests editorial prioritization of major-party conflicts and contests that could alter congressional balance. This emphasis can understate independent candidacies or runoff mechanics that materially affect results. Sources drawing from aggregated election trackers or encyclopedic pages tend to highlight named leaders without disclosing the underlying poll sponsors, sample sizes, or dates—factors that introduce potential agenda or selection bias into public perception if readers infer polling certainty where none exists ^{[3] [4] [5]}.

6. Bottom line for readers tracking December 2025 specials

The authoritative takeaway from the available sources is that top-name contenders are identifiable—Van Epps and Behn in Tennessee, Menefee and Edwards in Texas—but reliable, contemporaneous polling data to rank or predict their chances is not present in the supplied material. Observers should therefore treat current “top candidate” lists as snapshots of filings and media focus, not validated electoral forecasts, and should watch for certification updates, official ballot lists, and any new, methodologically transparent polls before assigning probabilities to outcomes ^{[1] [2] [3] [5]}.