Which local housing markets have seen the largest commission-percentage changes since the 2024 rule shift?

1. The national baseline: small average movement, not local outliers documented

Broad data collected after the August 2024 rule changes points to only small average declines in buyer‑agent compensation: Clever’s nationwide survey of agents found planned listing‑agent concessions averaging 2.60%, a 0.13 percentage‑point decline from earlier averages, which on a median house price translated to only a few hundred dollars saved per transaction ^[1]; and Bankrate’s reporting in early 2025 summarized that “overall buyer‑agent commissions have barely budged” since the rule change ^[2]. Those two pieces of reporting together establish a national baseline but do not break results down into named local markets showing outsized percentage shifts ^{[1] [2]}.

2. Industry expectations versus real‑world adjustments

Media and industry analysts predicted bigger regional disruption—ranging from buyers being asked to pay agents directly to commissions falling below 4% in competitive marketplaces—but those expectations are forward‑looking and not proof of large realized local swings ^{[3] [4]}. Coverage in outlets such as Nasdaq and InvestorPlace described scenarios where buyer costs could rise if rules aren’t accompanied by financing changes, while consumer advocates forecast more transparent, competitive fee pressure; those are plausible directional forces but not documented local percentage changes in the reporting provided ^{[3] [4]}.

3. Why local markets are not singled out in reporting: data limitations and lag

Public coverage and survey work available through late 2024 and into early 2025 focus on national averages, firm‑level anecdotes, and expectations rather than audited, MLS‑level commission time series for individual metros, so press narratives have not produced a defensible list of “largest‑change” local markets ^{[1] [2]}. The Guardian’s overview outlined how prior norms clustered around 5–6% commission regimes, providing a pre‑change reference point, but the piece did not quantify which metros diverged most after the settlement ^[5]. First Citizens noted regulatory frictions—like mortgage‑financing rules that currently prevent buyers from rolling agent fees into some loans—that could blunt or delay local shifts ^[6].

4. Pockets most likely to move (what the evidence implies, not proves)

Where reporting suggests localized shifts are most likely to show up—though not yet empirically documented—are markets with higher buyer negotiating power or strong discount‑broker penetration and markets experiencing rapid inventory growth that depresses seller leverage (analysts’ expectations and later housing‑power reporting) ^{[3] [7]}. Fast‑changing supply/demand dynamics such as rising active listings have been linked to a shift in leverage toward buyers in some regions, which could, in theory, produce larger commission percentage movements locally—but the sources available do not provide measured commission changes by metro ^[7].

5. Bottom line and what is needed to answer the question decisively

Current reporting allows only this conclusion: there is not yet publicly reported, metro‑level evidence that any specific local housing markets have experienced the “largest commission‑percentage changes” since the 2024 rule shift; national surveys show small average movement and industry commentary anticipates future regional variation ^{[1] [2] [3]}. To identify true local outliers would require MLS or broker‑level commission data over time, or targeted regional studies comparing pre‑ and post‑August 2024 commission rates—data that the cited coverage does not supply ^{[1] [2]}.