Birth rates in Gaza
Executive summary
Birth rates in Gaza remain relatively high by global standards but have been falling from the very high levels of the early 2000s; estimates for fertility range from roughly 3.3 to 4.4 children per woman depending on the source and year, while crude birth rates have been reported around 27 births per 1,000 people in recent World Bank series [1] [2] [3]. The large-scale violence and blockade since 2023 have sharply disrupted reproductive health services and, according to multiple humanitarian and official Gaza sources, contributed to a steep short-term decline in births and much worse outcomes for mothers and infants [4] [5] [6].
1. What the long-term numbers show: fertility and crude birth rates
Longer-term measures portray Gaza as a high‑fertility context that is nonetheless on a downward trajectory: older CIA World Factbook and cited compilations put Gaza’s total fertility near 3.97–4.4 children per woman in the late 2010s and early 2020s, while more recent compilations of official data place Palestine’s overall fertility near 3.31 births per woman in 2023 according to World Bank-derived series used by Trading Economics [7] [3] [1]; Statista’s synthesis of census projections gives an intermediate 2023 estimate of about 3.38 for Gaza specifically [8]. The crude birth rate—live births per 1,000 population—has been reported at roughly 27 per 1,000 in recent years, showing a gradual decline from higher historic values [2] [9].
2. Recent shocks: war, blockade and an observed fall in births
Beyond trend lines, the last few years have introduced abrupt shocks: humanitarian agencies and Gaza health authorities report a marked drop in births during 2024–2025 coinciding with sustained conflict, attacks on health infrastructure, and constraints on supplies; the Gaza Ministry of Health reported a 41% decrease in births in the first half of 2025 versus the previous three‑year average, and humanitarian groups documented thousands of deliveries during pauses in fighting while warning maternal‑newborn survival is deteriorating [4] [5] [6]. Save the Children and UNICEF reporting highlighted both high absolute numbers of births occurring amid crisis—UNFPA/Save the Children citing roughly 130 births per day based on pregnant‑woman estimates—and rising complications, stillbirths and neonatal risks in conditions of collapsed services [5] [6].
3. Numbers versus lived reality: births are occurring, but outcomes worsen
Multiple sources underline a dissonance: tens of thousands of pregnancies and thousands of births continued during wartime even where total population fell because of casualties and displacement—PCBS data cited past pre-war annual births of roughly 55,000–58,000 in 2020–2021—yet those births are happening amid shortages, damaged maternity wards and reported increases in miscarriages and premature or underweight newborns [10] [5] [6]. That means crude birth counts or fertility rates alone do not capture rising perinatal mortality, maternal risk or the destruction of reproductive services that can suppress births over time if sustained [5] [4].
4. Competing narratives, data limitations and implicit agendas
Sources diverge and carry agendas: Gaza Ministry and humanitarian groups emphasize catastrophic healthcare collapse and link attacks on fertility clinics to deliberate efforts to prevent births, a claim amplified by UN investigators and rights advocates who framed clinic destruction as part of a larger, potentially genocidal pattern [4]. International compilations such as the World Bank, CIA Factbook and independent aggregators offer broader demographic trend data but may lag or smooth short‑term wartime fluctuations [1] [7] [2]. Some press summaries cite PCBS figures that draw on Hamas‑sourced counts for wartime population changes—readers should note that wartime reporting of births, deaths and migration is politicized and methodologically fraught [10].
5. Bottom line and what remains uncertain
The bottom line: Gaza historically has had high fertility and a young population, with total fertility rates broadly in the 3–4+ children per woman range and crude birth rates near the high‑20s per 1,000; however, war and the destruction of reproductive healthcare have produced an abrupt, reported fall in births and sharply worse maternal and neonatal outcomes in 2024–2025, with credible claims of a roughly 41% drop in births in early 2025 and humanitarian estimates of thousands of births occurring under life‑threatening conditions [7] [1] [8] [2] [4] [5] [6]. Precise, independently verified counts for 2024–2026 remain limited in publicly available sources and are complicated by displacement, mortality and politicized reporting; those caveats should guide interpretation of any single figure [10].