How will immigration policy changes after 2025 affect Muslim population growth in the UK?
Executive summary
UK government policy since 2025 is explicitly designed to reduce net migration and raise thresholds for legal settlement — measures include raising skill and English requirements, shortening some post‑study work routes, closing the social‑care route to new entrants, and introducing an “Earned Settlement” contribution model (white paper; statements of changes) [1] [2] [3]. The Muslim population in Britain was about 4 million in 2021/25 and concentrated in younger age cohorts and urban areas; future growth will depend on births, conversions, and net migration — the new rules make the migration channel smaller and more selective, but sources do not give a single forecast for Muslim population change after 2025 [4] [5] [6].
1. Policy shift: explicit aim to reduce migration and tighten settlement
The government’s 2025 white paper, Restoring Control over the Immigration System, sets a clear direction: reduce overall migration, tighten visa eligibility, and embed contribution, integration and character tests in a new Earned Settlement model; many of the changes are being introduced by Statements of Changes rather than primary legislation [1] [3] [2].
2. Concrete rule changes that lower future inflows
Since mid‑2025 the government has raised the Skilled Worker skill threshold (RQF3→RQF6), increased English requirements to B2 for several work routes from January 2026, shortened the Graduate Route for most students from 24 to 18 months for those starting from 2026/27, closed the social‑care route to new overseas applicants, and signalled higher employer charges — all of which narrow the volume and type of legal migration [7] [2] [8] [9].
3. How these rules intersect with likely sources of Muslim population growth
Official and community sources show British Muslim numbers rose from ~1.6m to ~4m by 2021/25, fed by immigration, higher fertility and some conversions [4] [6]. The 2025 reforms curb labour‑market and student channels that historically contributed to immigration from many Muslim‑majority countries [10] [11]. That makes future Muslim population growth less likely to be migration‑driven and relatively more dependent on natural increase (births) among resident Muslim families and internal demographic momentum [5].
4. Who is affected most — skills, students and family routes
The policy targets lower‑skill employment routes and many post‑study pathways; it also tightens settlement qualifying periods and contribution‑based criteria. Sectors that previously recruited many migrants (health & care, hospitality, logistics) face closures or higher thresholds, and family‑migration and settlement timings will change — all reducing opportunities for new arrivals who might otherwise add to Muslim population growth [10] [7] [8].
5. Timing, transitional rules and exceptions matter
Sources stress transitional protections: people already in the UK under older rules can benefit from some protections until expiries (extensions, switching, or specific carve‑outs for PhD students), and the government has said some liberalisations (e.g., High Potential lists) will expand in parallel — so short‑term inflows and existing cohort effects continue to affect population size for years [2] [11] [7].
6. Social and political context that may affect behaviour and data
Public attitudes and rising Islamophobia are widely reported in 2025 polling and media — surveys show substantial negative opinion toward Muslim immigrants and rising hate‑crime counts cited by community outlets — which may influence policy politics, settlement choices, integration pressures, and the willingness of migrants to choose the UK [12] [13] [14]. Sources document both political pressure to cut migration and strong civil‑society countersigns, so demographic outcomes will interact with social dynamics [10] [12].
7. What sources do and do not provide: limits on projection
Available sources document the scale of the 2025 policy changes and recent Muslim population baselines but do not include an explicit forecast of Muslim population size under the new rules or modelling that isolates the white paper’s demographic effect on religious groups specifically. There is no single authoritative projection in the files provided that quantifies Muslim population growth post‑2025 [5] [1].
8. Bottom line for readers: slower migration, but growth not ruled out
Taken together, the policy package will reduce and re‑shape legal migration channels that have contributed to Muslim population increases; this makes migration‑driven growth smaller than in the 2010s–early‑2020s [1] [10]. Nevertheless, the established Muslim community’s youthful age profile and fertility patterns, existing resident cohorts, exceptions/transitional rules, and non‑migration factors (births, conversions) mean the overall Muslim population can still grow — albeit more by natural increase and less by mass new immigration than before [4] [5] [6].
Sources cited above: Muslim Council of Britain census summary and report [4] [5], Islam in the UK overview [6], UK government white paper and Statements of Changes and related briefings [1] [2] [3] [7], House of Commons Library and sector analyses [8] [10], plus public‑opinion and community reporting on social context [12] [13] [14].