How have unauthorized immigrant populations changed by county within California and Texas since 2019?
Executive summary
Overall, unauthorized immigrant totals shifted markedly since 2019: California’s statewide unauthorized population is reported to have declined modestly while Texas experienced substantial growth, and those state-level moves mask important county-level divergence — declines concentrated in some California metros and increases across many Texas counties and Texas metros such as Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth [1] [2] [3]. Detailed county-by-county tallies exist in Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and related data hubs, but publicly summarized reporting emphasizes metropolitan patterns and state aggregates rather than a finished county-by-county accounting in the sources reviewed [4] [5].
1. California: overall decline, but uneven county patterns
Pew and other analysts find California is the only state with a net decline in its unauthorized population in the recent comparisons cited — roughly a 120,000-person decrease according to one Pew summary — even as it remains the single state with the largest unauthorized population overall [1] [2]. That statewide fall does not imply uniform county-level shrinkage: reporting and historical studies show the largest concentrations and the most visible declines are in major California metro counties — Los Angeles, Riverside–San Bernardino, San Francisco, San Diego and San Jose — which historically have held the biggest unauthorized populations and where demographic shifts have been largest [3] [6]. Researchers and data hubs (MPI) make county profiles available so analysts can locate which specific counties gained or lost residents, but the summaries in the sources stop short of publishing a comprehensive, source-linked list of 2019-to-2023 county deltas for every California county [4] [5].
2. Texas: sizable statewide gains concentrated in metro and growth counties
Texas is identified repeatedly as one of the states that gained significant unauthorized-population numbers after 2019, with several hundred thousand more unauthorized immigrants added in the early 2020s according to Pew and MPI summaries; Texas moved close behind California in raw totals in recent tallies [2] [7]. County- and metro-level reporting highlights strong inflows in Texas metros — Houston, Dallas–Fort Worth and Austin are singled out among the nation’s largest unauthorized-population metros — indicating that much of the state’s growth is concentrated in major urban counties and surrounding suburban counties [3] [8]. MPI’s county-level data tools and profiles are the primary sources for identifying which Texas counties saw the largest absolute increases, but the news summaries reviewed focus on metro patterns rather than publishing an exhaustive county-by-county change list in the body text [4] [9].
3. Geography of change: metros, suburbs and the “deconcentration” story
Multiple sources document a broader national pattern that helps explain county shifts: the unauthorized population is dispersing beyond the historic coastal strongholds, with growth in interior and Sun Belt metros and a reduced share concentrated in the few traditional gateway counties [2] [6]. In practice this means California’s share of the national unauthorized total has fallen (PPIC reports California’s share down from 23% to 16%), while Texas has become a near-equal co-leader in absolute numbers — a redistribution that plays out across counties as newcomers settle in expanding metro suburbs and in Texas’ oil, agriculture and construction labor markets [10] [2].
4. Data methodology, caveats and competing interpretations
Underlying all county-level claims are methodological limits: MPI and Pew derive unauthorized estimates indirectly from ACS and administrative data using imputation methods, and the Census does not ask legal-status questions directly, so county estimates depend on modeling choices; the Migration Policy Institute’s county profiles and tools are the clearest route to granular estimates, and other analysts (Dallas Fed, CBO-influenced work) use microdata-based approaches that can yield different timing and exit/entry conclusions [4] [8]. Sources also diverge on timing — some emphasize sharp growth through 2023 then a possible slowdown in 2025, while others focus on longer-term deconcentration — so any firm county ranking should be drawn from the MPI county profiles or original ACS-derived tables rather than news summaries alone [11] [7].
5. What reporting shows — and what it does not
Reporting reviewed makes clear that California saw a net decline while Texas added hundreds of thousands of unauthorized residents and that large metropolitan counties in both states hold the bulk of these populations [1] [2] [3]. What the sources do not provide in article form here is a verified, side-by-side list of every California and Texas county’s 2019 versus latest-year unauthorized-population change; those granular comparisons exist in MPI’s data hub and county profiles and should be consulted for precise county deltas [4] [5].