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The immediate risk of a direct all‑out war between Russia and the collective of European states remains limited but non‑negligible: most expert forecasting and intelligence products see a higher proba...
Three credible escalation pathways could draw Russia and NATO into direct confrontation by 2026: inadvertent or “fog-of-war” incidents near NATO borders, deliberate Russian provocations or cross-borde...
Three broad trigger families—rapid conventional attack on a member (most often framed as a ), that crosses Article 5 thresholds (cyber, sabotage, airspace shoot‑downs), and inadvertent escalation from...
Major Western think tanks converge around a small set of plausible 2026 futures for the Russia–Ukraine war: a prolonged, high‑intensity war of attrition that continues into 2026; limited Russian tacti...