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Business school at University of California, Los Angeles
Removing California from the U.S. national GDP would materially lower the U.S. ranking among world economies because California alone ranks near the top of nations — recently sitting as the world’s fo...
California’s nominal GDP reached roughly $4.1 trillion in 2024, making it one of the world’s largest subnational economies, while recent reporting shows the state’s nominal GDP averaged 7.5% growth fr...
Economists and market forecasters disagree: big banks and research groups currently place the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 well below certainty — J.P. Morgan lowered its 2025 recession probability...
Most professional forecasts point to a modest rise in U.S. unemployment in 2026 to roughly the mid‑4 percent range — commonly 4.4–4.6% — though some models and downside scenarios see 5.0% or higher (e...
California’s real GDP grew noticeably from the pandemic trough in 2020 through 2024, but its year‑by‑year performance did not uniformly outpace the U.S. In available reporting: California’s real GDP r...
The question of whether the United States is barreling toward a recession has no single answer: mainstream market models put the odds anywhere from low-to-moderate to substantial, while regional and s...
Available sources document sizable declines in California’s imports from China (e.g., a drop in Chinese imports helped push statewide imports from $508.8 billion in 2022 to $449.48 billion in 2023) an...
Existing materials in the supplied dataset do not provide a direct, evidence-based estimate of the economic loss to the United States if California became independent; instead they contain a mix of a ...