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Index/Topics/Election forecasting

Election forecasting

The process of predicting election outcomes using various methods and sources

Fact-Checks

2 results
Feb 5, 2026

Which Senate races do Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections each list as Toss‑Up as of today?

Three premier use “” to flag the most competitive , but the available reporting only gives a clear, attributable Toss‑Up list for : Sabato has pared its Toss‑Up column down from four to three (, and )...

Jan 19, 2026

How have mainstream outlets documented the accuracy of political prophecies in the 2020s, and what methodology do they use?

Mainstream outlets in the 2020s have treated political “prophecies” — from statistical election forecasts to bold journalistic predictions and viral doomsday claims — as testable claims, documenting t...