Which Senate races do Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections each list as Toss‑Up as of today?
Executive summary
Three premier forecasters use “Toss‑Up” to flag the most competitive Senate contests, but the available reporting only gives a clear, attributable Toss‑Up list for Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Sabato has pared its Toss‑Up column down from four to three (Maine, North Carolina and Michigan) after moving Georgia to Leans Democratic [1] [2]. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections are described as publishing Toss‑Up ratings, but the specific seat-by-seat Toss‑Up lists from those two shops are not present in the provided sources and cannot be confirmed from the materials supplied [3] [4] [5].
1. What the question really demands and what the sources actually provide
The user asks for the current roster of Senate races each of three outlets—Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections—labels “Toss‑Up” as of today; this requires contemporaneous, seat‑level ratings from each outlet, but the supplied documents include only Sabato’s explicit seat list and general descriptions for Cook and Inside Elections rather than their current seat‑by‑seat Toss‑Up inventories, so the definitive answers differ by source availability [1] [3] [5].
2. Sabato’s Crystal Ball: the clearest public inventory and a recent change
Sabato’s archived reporting explicitly listed four Senate Toss‑ups at one point—Republican‑held Maine and North Carolina and Democratic‑held Georgia and Michigan—but a subsequent Sabato update moved Georgia from Toss‑Up to Leans Democratic, leaving Sabato’s current Toss‑Up column with Maine, North Carolina and Michigan [1] [2].
3. Cook Political Report: definition present, seat list not in supplied material
Cook’s public rating framework and Toss‑Up definition are accessible—Cook defines “Toss Up” as the most competitive races where either party has a good chance—but the provided Cook pages and snippets do not include the outlet’s current, seat‑by‑seat Toss‑Up list; its detailed race pages and narratives are subscriber‑locked, so Cook’s exact Toss‑Up roster can’t be confirmed from the supplied sources [3] [4].
4. Inside Elections: referenced in composites but not available in the excerpts
Inside Elections is repeatedly named as one of the three shops used in composite maps and consensus forecasts (for example in 270toWin’s composite and map pages), and the composite “Toss‑Up” shading relies on agreement or market thresholds, but the supplied snippets do not contain Inside Elections’ independent, up‑to‑date Toss‑Up list, so its seat‑by‑seat Toss‑Up designations cannot be verified here [6] [5] [7].
5. How third‑party composites treat “Toss‑Up” and why that matters
Aggregators like 270toWin produce consensus maps that combine Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections and apply a composite “Toss‑Up” treatment—sometimes tied to market odds thresholds (55% or 65%)—which can mask differences among the three shops and create a different public appearance of how many races are truly competitive; those composite rules and market‑based definitions are documented in the 270toWin snippets but are not a substitute for each outlet’s standalone list [5] [7].
6. Bottom line: attributable answers and limits of reporting
Based on the supplied reporting, Sabato currently lists Maine, North Carolina and Michigan as Toss‑Ups after moving Georgia to Leans Democratic [1] [2]. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections are confirmed to use a “Toss‑Up” category and are included in composite forecasts, but the specific seat lists from Cook and Inside Elections are not present in the provided sources and therefore cannot be enumerated here without access to their current, detailed ratings pages or subscription content [3] [4] [5] [6].