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The impact of macroeconomic feedback on tariff revenue and the budget baseline.
The evidence from 2025 points to a shifting burden: in the first half of the year most tariff costs were shouldered by firms—importers compressing margins and absorbing duties—while by the autumn a gr...
The 2025 tariff overhaul materially raised federal customs receipts in the near term and materially altered the budget baseline by shaving projected deficits, but the size and persistence of that effe...
Dynamic scoring alters tariff revenue projections by folding macroeconomic feedback—growth effects, trade-volume responses, retaliation and higher interest costs—into estimates that conventional (stat...