How much voter fraud in 2020 elections
Executive summary
The best contemporaneous reporting and peer-reviewed analysis conclude that voter fraud in the 2020 U.S. presidential election was vanishingly small and not systematic: an Associated Press review identified fewer than 475 potential cases across six contested battleground states—an amount too small to affect the outcome [1][2][3]. Peer-reviewed statistical analysis found no evidence of coordinated, outcome-changing manipulation and debunked high-profile numerical claims, concluding there was no systematic fraud detected in the official tallies [4][5].
1. The empirical tally: documented incidents and convictions
Journalistic and public-database efforts converged on the same basic accounting: thorough reporting by the AP and summaries cited by PBS and Reuters tallied fewer than 475 potential instances of fraud in the six battleground states most central to post‑election challenges—far short of any number that would change the Electoral College result [1][2][6]; independent compilations and conservative databases also show only hundreds of convictions or findings across many years, not mass coordinated schemes [7][8].
2. What “rare” actually looks like in percentages
Analysts translate anecdote into scale: conservative analyses and mainstream think tanks place fraud rates at micro‑levels—Heritage and Brookings data have been cited to estimate fraudulent votes as a microscopic fraction of ballots cast (Brookings reported a figure on the order of 0.0000845% across long timeframes), illustrating that detected fraud is statistically negligible relative to total turnout [9][10][7].
3. Statistical debunking of high‑profile claims
Academic scrutiny addressed the prominent numerical claims directly: peer‑reviewed work in PNAS assessed arguments about voting‑machine switching, unusual turnout patterns, and “bellwether” county behavior, using original data and statistical reasoning to show those anomalies do not constitute evidence of a coordinated fraud that would alter the election outcome [4][5].
4. Courts, election officials, and federal investigators: no proof of a stolen election
Scores of lawsuits challenging the 2020 result were dismissed by judges after evidence review, and top election officials and federal actors—including then‑FBI leadership—reported no sign of a coordinated national voter‑fraud operation; reporting in the New York Times and other outlets notes repeated judicial rejections of fraud claims and official statements that no widespread fraud was proven [11][12][13].
5. What the limited cases show about motive and method
Detailed reporting of the individual incidents uncovered by post‑election reviews found most cases were isolated, involved individuals rather than conspiracies, and often reflected mistakes, misunderstandings, or attempts by a few people to cast extra ballots—not a coordinated effort to rig the national result [1][14][15]. Journalistic investigations and election officials emphasized that existing safeguards—decentralized administration, verification procedures, and audits—make broad fraud both difficult to execute and likely to be detected [14][6].
6. Why the “big lie” persisted and its downstream effects
Despite the absence of evidence for systemic fraud, surveys showed a large share of partisan voters believed millions of fraudulent ballots were cast, and political actors amplified those beliefs; reporting and academic observers warn that claims of widespread fraud have translated into legislative changes, legal fights, and political polarization even as the underlying factual record shows only rare, small‑scale incidents [4][11][12]. Multiple reputable outlets and fact‑checks summarized here (AP, PNAS, Brookings, Brennan Center, Reuters) consistently find too little proven fraud in 2020 to have changed the result, while also documenting persistent misinformation and policy consequences tied to those falsehoods [1][4][9][14][6].