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Sabato's Crystal Ball

Political newsletter and election predictor

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34 results
Dec 1, 2025
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How many seats do Republicans and Democrats hold in the 2025 Senate and how many are up for reelection in 2026?

Republicans hold a 53‑seat majority in the 119th Senate while Democrats (including two independents who caucus with them) make up the remaining 47 seats (45 Democrats + 2 Independents) — Senate.gov li...

Jan 27, 2026
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Will democrats take majority in congress in 2026

are in position to retake the House in 2026 according to polls and multiple independent forecasters, but control of the Senate is much less certain; a House majority is plausible and even likely in ma...

Dec 4, 2025
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Which Senate seats are up for election in 2026?

The 2026 U.S. Senate map will include the regularly scheduled Class 2 cycle — 33 seats — plus at least two special elections that some outlets count, producing either 33 or 35 contests depending on th...

Jan 23, 2026

Which states do not record party affiliation on voter registration forms and how does that affect national party registration comparisons?

states and the explicitly collect and publish on their , while the remaining states either do not ask for party on the registration form or do not report those totals publicly (counts vary by source) ...

Oct 2, 2025

What are the current polls for the 2026 House elections?

The current publicly cited polling landscape for the 2026 U.S. House elections shows a modest on the generic congressional ballot, with poll aggregates reporting Democrats ahead by roughly 2–3 points ...

Nov 5, 2025

which political party will control the house and the senent in 2026

The question of which party will control the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 elections is unresolved and depends on a shifting set of structural factors, individual race dynamics, and national po...

Jan 23, 2026

How does the 2026 Senate map compare to 2024 elections?

The is markedly easier for Republicans than the map Democrats defended in : Republicans enter 2026 with a 53–47 majority and face far fewer vulnerable seats, while Democrats must defend a smaller slat...

Oct 27, 2025

Which House districts are most likely to flip in 2026?

The best public lists and trackers indicate a short roster of competitive House districts to watch in 2026, with advocacy groups and interactive map projects repeatedly flagging seats such as AK-AL, A...

Feb 1, 2026

What would the Senate map look like after 2026 and how would that affect the likelihood of a conviction following a House impeachment?

The Senate entering the is a 53–47 Republican majority (including two independents who caucus with ), with 35 seats up for election in November 2026 and defending 22 of those seats while Democrats def...

Nov 11, 2025

What are the projections for US House seats in 2026 elections?

Most major forecasters in spring–summer 2025 present a competitive, district‑by‑district 2026 U.S. House landscape in which Democrats have pathways to a narrow majority but forecasts diverge: some dat...

Nov 12, 2025

Key battleground states in 2026 Senate elections

The reporting and ratings literature supplied point to a recurring cluster of swing states — — as the most frequently cited battlegrounds for the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, though lists vary and incl...

Nov 1, 2025

what are the closest 2026 contests for senate and house democrats seeking election?

The closest 2026 contests affecting Democrats running for the Senate concentrate in a dozen states where Democrats need net gains to retake control, with repeatedly flagged as competitive; this patter...

Dec 9, 2025

Which 2026 Senate races are rated as toss-ups by major forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball?

Major forecasters currently list a small group of 2026 Senate contests as true “Toss‑ups.” Cook Political Report says two races — Georgia (Ossoff) and Michigan (open after Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement...

Dec 6, 2025

Which U.S. Senate seats are contested in the 2026 midterm elections by state?

All regularly scheduled Class 2 Senate seats (33 states) are on the 2026 ballot, plus two special elections — in Florida and Ohio — bringing the total to either 35 seats according to several trackers ...

Dec 3, 2025

Which 2025–2026 special House elections are most likely to flip control of the chamber?

Republicans hold a slim 219–213 House majority entering the 119th Congress, with at least six special elections expected in 2025–2026 that could shift that margin . Because Democrats need to net only ...

Dec 15, 2025

Which specific House districts in battleground states are most likely to flip in 2026?

Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to win the majority in 2026, and party campaign arms have already identified a concentrated battleground: the DCCC lists roughly 35 Republican-held targe...

Jan 23, 2026

How have retirements and redistricting changed the 2026 House battleground map compared with 2024?

A surge of retirements—48 members announced they will not run in 2026—and an unprecedented wave of mid‑decade have reshaped where control of the House will be decided, concentrating new vulnerability ...

Nov 22, 2025

How might 2026 Senate elections affect majority control?

Republicans enter 2026 with a Senate majority in the low-to-mid 50s (sources cite 53–53/52–53 ranges) and are defending more seats on the map that analysts broadly judge favorable to the GOP; Democrat...

Nov 16, 2025

Which states have historically voted democratic in Senate elections?

Across U.S. history the party that has dominated Senate seats by state has shifted dramatically: in the 19th and early 20th centuries party labels and regional blocs (Federalists, Democratic‑Republica...

Feb 5, 2026

Which Senate races do Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections each list as Toss‑Up as of today?

Three premier use “” to flag the most competitive , but the available reporting only gives a clear, attributable Toss‑Up list for : Sabato has pared its Toss‑Up column down from four to three (, and )...