How has the geographic distribution of unauthorized immigrants changed since 2019 by state and metro area?
Executive summary
The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States has grown since 2019 but the increase has not been uniform: national estimates from policy researchers show several million more unauthorized residents concentrated increasingly in a subset of states and large metro areas, while some long‑standing gateways have seen relative declines [1] [2]. Local patterns since 2019 reveal pronounced growth in parts of the South and interior West and a continuing concentration in major metropolitan corridors even as the rank order of some metros and states shifts [3] [4].
1. National picture: rapid growth after 2019, but contested magnitudes
Multiple research teams report a sizable rise in unauthorized residents after 2019: Migration Policy Institute’s methodology implies the unauthorized population expanded markedly in 2019–23 (an MPI summary describes sharp growth and new MPI estimates) and one account notes roughly a 3 million increase across that period [5] [1]. Other analysts, including researchers who later revised Census inputs, have produced higher 2023 totals—findings that complicate point estimates but agree on upward direction since the 2019 baseline [2] [6].
2. State shifts: some traditional gateways paused while Sun Belt and inland states gained
State maps and interactive profiles show the bulk of unauthorized residents still live in a handful of states—California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois remain large hosts—but growth since 2019 is concentrated in places like Florida and Washington while California and Nevada have experienced relative declines in their shares [4] [7]. MPI’s state profiles and frequently requested statistics underscore that the population remains geographically concentrated in certain states even as newcomers and secondary migration push expansion into the South and interior West [2] [7].
3. Metro dynamics: concentration in major metros, but new inflows reshape local footprints
Most unauthorized immigrants continue to reside in a limited set of metros, a pattern documented before 2019 and still true today, yet local inflows since 2019 have been uneven—some long‑standing high‑count metros saw slower growth or declines, while many counties in the West, the southern belt (Arizona, Texas, Florida) and around the New York City metro witnessed the largest worker inflows during recent surges [8] [9] [3]. Dallas Fed researchers using microdata to July 2025 emphasize that surge-period entry clustered in western and southern counties and that metropolitan patterns vary monthly and by labor‑force subgroup [3].
4. Drivers behind the redistribution: border flows, secondary migration and economic pull
Analysts point to a mix of factors driving geographic change: rising arrivals at the border and inland crossings after 2019, economic opportunities in Sun Belt and interior regions, family ties and secondary migration from traditional gateways, and labor demand in specific industries that cluster in particular metros [3] [7]. Researchers also note that the composition of the unauthorized population is shifting—more people with "liminal" statuses such as DACA, TPS or humanitarian parole are being counted in some estimates, which affects both totals and geographic assignment [2] [1].
5. Methodological caveats and competing estimates: why metro and state comparisons are imperfect
State and metro comparisons rest on different methodologies that impute unauthorized status from ACS, SIPP and administrative inputs; residual methods and MPI’s assignment procedure produce useful local profiles but include uncertainty and margins of error that make small year‑to‑year shifts ambiguous [2] [10]. Pew, MPI and the Dallas Fed use different inputs and time windows, and recent Census Bureau revisions to international migration estimates have altered the baseline—so while the direction of redistribution (more growth outside some old gateways) is robust, precise counts by state and metro since 2019 vary across reputable sources [6] [3] [10].
6. Bottom line: a concentrated population, shifting map
The unauthorized population since 2019 has grown and become more geographically dispersed in some respects—rising substantially in select Sun Belt and interior Western counties and metros while some traditional coastal gateways have not regained earlier peaks—yet concentration remains high in a limited set of states and metros, and exact rankings depend on the data source and method used [1] [4] [8]. Researchers and policymakers should therefore treat state and metro changes as meaningful directionally but imprecise numerically, and they must account for methodological differences when using these figures for local planning or political arguments [2] [10].