Index/Organizations/Yale Budget Lab

Yale Budget Lab

Fact-Checks

18 results
Nov 20, 2025
Most Viewed

Was the economy better under Biden or Trump

Comparing “better” under Biden or Trump depends on which metrics you use: inflation was much higher early in Biden’s term (peaking around 9% in 2022) but came down later, while early in Trump’s second...

Oct 10, 2025
Most Viewed

How much did illegal immigrants pay in taxes in 2024

A consistent set of reports finds that undocumented (commonly called “illegal”) immigrants paid roughly , and multiple analyses warn that changes in enforcement or data-sharing could reduce compliance...

Nov 18, 2025
Most Viewed

How much has Trumps tariffs brought back to America

Tariff receipts surged in fiscal 2025, with the U.S. Treasury taking in roughly $195 billion in customs duties that year — more than triple 2024 levels — though analysts disagree on how much of that i...

Jan 11, 2026

How much did undocumented immigrants pay in federal income taxes in 2023 or latest year?

Estimates for how much undocumented immigrants paid in federal income taxes in 2023 cluster in a relatively narrow band when researchers disambiguate “federal income” from payroll and other federal ta...

Dec 17, 2025

How do US tariff collections in 2025 compare to previous years and historical peaks?

U.S. tariff collections surged in 2025 well above recent years: multiple trackers and government statements put fiscal‑year 2025 customs duties between roughly $195 billion and more than $200 billion,...

Nov 21, 2025

will tariffs help the US economy or hurt it

Tariffs raise government revenue and can protect some domestic industries, but multiple recent analyses and news reports find sizable economic costs: models project long‑run GDP declines (~0.3–0.8%), ...

Oct 27, 2025

Did donald trump say he would lower costs of living in america

Donald Trump repeatedly promised to make life more affordable for Americans, including claims to lower grocery prices and overall cost of living; however, contemporary reporting and economic analyses ...

Nov 20, 2025

What’s the difference of inflation between Biden and Trump?

Inflation peaked at 9.1% in the 12 months ending June 2022 during the Biden presidency and Investopedia calculates Biden’s average year‑over‑year inflation at about 4.95% . Reporting from multiple out...

Dec 19, 2025

How much revenue was gained only through trumps tarrifs from Jan 2025 through December 2025

Calendar-year and fiscal accounting produce different answers, but independent trackers and government statements place tariff collections tied to the 2025 tariff surge in the rough neighborhood of $1...

Nov 30, 2025

Have the US lost 59,000 jobs due to Tariffs

Media coverage and economic analyses disagree on the scale of job losses linked to the 2025 tariff spree: many outlets cite manufacturing payroll declines of roughly 37,000–59,000 jobs since April 202...

Jan 17, 2026

AI’s Jobs unemployment effects

AI so far has nudged unemployment upward in select pockets—notably among younger and some college‑educated workers—while overall unemployment effects remain modest in aggregate according to several re...

Dec 18, 2025

How have tariffs implemented since April 2025 correlated with recent inflation and consumer price trends?

Tariffs enacted and expanded since April 2025 are empirically linked to a measurable uptick in consumer prices: model-based and empirical work estimates first-round effects ranging from roughly 0.5 to...

Jan 17, 2026

What is the measured inflationary impact of Trump’s tariff increases during his second term?

Measured estimates of the inflationary impact of President Trump’s second‑term tariff increases vary, but solid empirical research and market analysis point to a meaningful, if not catastrophic, effec...

Jan 14, 2026

How do dynamic scoring rules change projected revenue from tariffs compared with conventional budget scoring?

Dynamic scoring alters tariff revenue projections by folding macroeconomic feedback—growth effects, trade-volume responses, retaliation and higher interest costs—into estimates that conventional (stat...

Dec 11, 2025

What federal programs exist to offset tariff impacts on consumers and how effective are they?

Federal programs to blunt tariff impacts include targeted producer aid such as the USDA’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Payment Program for farmers and previously announced tariff exemptions/refunds for c...

Dec 1, 2025

Has the price of food decreased since Trump has been in office?

Available reporting shows no broad, sustained fall in U.S. grocery prices since President Trump took office; some measures show modest month-to-month declines at times while most food categories remai...

Nov 30, 2025

Are retail Prices better under Trump

Retail prices since President Trump took office in 2025 show a mixed picture: some headline measures of inflation have cooled to the low single digits according to White House claims, but independent ...

Oct 8, 2025

what has trump financially cut that will really hurt country and people

Donald Trump’s recent fiscal actions are claimed to have cut funding and shifted economic burdens in ways that could harm farmers, states, federal operations, and lower- and middle-income households; ...