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Russia-NATO War Escalation

The potential escalation of the conflict between Russia and NATO, with possible pathways to direct confrontation by 2026

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Jan 17, 2026
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If Ukraine can hold back Russia on its own why can’t Europe

Ukraine’s ability to blunt and attrit Russian forces reflects unusually high mobilization, sustained Western materiel support, and the fact that Russia’s offensive is concentrated on Ukrainian territo...

Jan 16, 2026
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What scenarios do major Western think tanks forecast for the Russia‑Ukraine war in 2026?

Major Western think tanks converge around a small set of plausible 2026 futures for the Russia–Ukraine war: a prolonged, high‑intensity war of attrition that continues into 2026; limited Russian tacti...