Ukraine and Russia
Executive summary
The Russia–Ukraine confrontation is a prolonged, multi-phase conflict that escalated from Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea into a full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, producing shifting front lines, large-scale displacement and entrenched geopolitical rivalry [1] [2] [3]. Battles of attrition through 2022–2025 have produced incremental territorial shifts and a persistent humanitarian crisis even as international military, economic and diplomatic pressures shape the war’s trajectory [4] [5].
1. Origins: a decade of frozen and proxy conflict before full-scale war
The current war sits atop disputes that date to 2014, when disguised Russian forces took Crimea and fomented separatist wars in Donetsk and Luhansk, setting the stage for eight years of low-intensity fighting and failed Minsk ceasefires before 2022 [1] [6] [2].
2. The 2022 invasion: multi-axis offensive and the failure of decapitation strategy
On 24 February 2022 Russia launched a full-scale invasion from Belarus, Crimea and the eastern front, aiming for rapid decapitation of Kyiv but failing to seize the capital; Kyiv’s defense and counteroffensives forced Russian recalibration into prolonged, multi-front warfare [2] [4] [7].
3. Territorial ebb and flow: incremental gains, costly advances
Since the invasion the map has repeatedly shifted: Ukrainian counteroffensives in 2022 reclaimed large swathes in Kharkiv and Kherson regions while Russia annexed four regions and retained control of Crimea and parts of Donbas; analyses through late 2025 show modest net Russian gains in area but constant contestation along key southern and eastern fronts [4] [5] [8].
4. Humanitarian toll: displacement, casualties and infrastructure destruction
The humanitarian consequences are profound and well-documented: millions displaced internally and externally, mass destruction of cities such as Mariupol, targeted strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure, and reports of forced relocation of Ukrainians into Russia, all signaling large-scale civilian suffering [1] [7] [9].
5. International response: sanctions, military aid and fractured diplomacy
Western states and coalitions have responded with heavy sanctions on Russia and sustained military, intelligence and economic support for Ukraine; reporting into 2025 notes evolving patterns—intelligence-sharing to enable deep strikes and political leverage via potential cuts to support—illustrating how external backing both sustains Kyiv’s resistance and complicates diplomatic pathways [10] [11].
6. Information, war crimes and legal judgments
International bodies and media investigations have treated incidents ranging from attacks on civilian sites to mass graves as evidence of serious violations, with the ICC and European courts framing parts of the conflict as international in character and finding Russian responsibility for control of proxy regions dating back to 2014 [10] [1] [7].
7. Current dynamics and near-term risks
By late 2025 and into early 2026 the conflict remains neither decisively won nor frozen; incremental territorial changes continue, strikes on energy infrastructure shape winters and morale, and political moves—ranging from peace proposals to threats of cutting intelligence sharing—underline that military outcomes and diplomacy remain tightly coupled and unpredictable [5] [8] [12].
8. What reporting does not settle
Existing sources document timelines, territorial control estimates and policy shifts but do not provide a single authoritative prediction about end states—whether negotiated settlement, protracted stalemate, or renewed offensives—and available reporting must be read as snapshots from institutions (Commons Library, ISW, major media) that bring distinct emphases and potential agendas to the picture [3] [5] [11].