Index/Organizations/Yale's Budget Lab

Yale's Budget Lab

Fact-Checks

13 results
Dec 3, 2025
Most Viewed

How much did US tariff revenue total in 2025 year-to-date and full-year estimates?

The U.S. collected roughly $165–195 billion in tariff (customs duties) revenue in fiscal year 2025, with year‑to‑date calendar‑year or partial‑year tallies varying by source and cutoffs: Treasury and ...

Dec 2, 2025
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How does 2025 US tariff revenue compare to 2024 and prior years historically?

Fiscal 2025 saw tariff receipts surge to roughly $165–195 billion (Treasury-based and reporting sources vary), more than double FY2024’s ~$77 billion and several times the typical pre-2025 annual coll...

Nov 22, 2025
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How much revenue have US tariffs generated so far in 2025?

Available reporting shows wide, sometimes inconsistent measures of how much tariff revenue the U.S. has taken in so far in 2025: several data-driven trackers and budget analysts put fiscal-year 2025 c...

Nov 22, 2025

How would Trump be able to give every American $2,000 when he hasn’t collected any money and it will fall short

President Trump has proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” payments to most Americans funded by new tariffs, but administration officials and independent analysts say there is no formal plan and the availa...

Jan 18, 2026

How would removing the 2025 tariffs affect inflation and GDP projections in 2026 under major economic models?

Removing the 2025 tariffs would, in most major models, lower headline inflation in 2026 by a few tenths to about one percentage point relative to the path with tariffs, and raise 2026 real GDP growth ...

Nov 17, 2025

How many undocumented immigrants pay taxes in the US annually?

Most recent, widely cited estimates put annual tax payments by undocumented immigrants near $97 billion for 2022 — about $59.4 billion to the federal government and $37.3 billion to state and local go...

Jan 19, 2026

How much of the One Big Beautiful Bill’s cost is absorbed by higher deficits versus spending cuts?

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) finds the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB/OBBBA) raises the unified budget deficit by roughly $3.4 trillion over 2025–2034, driven mainly by about $4.5 t...

Jan 5, 2026

are the American people paying for tariffs

Yes — Americans are paying for tariffs: economists and policy shops find that U.S. businesses and households bear most of the economic burden through higher prices, lower real incomes and slower growt...

Jan 4, 2026

What impact do tariffs have on the econony

Tariffs raise the price of imported goods and act like a tax on consumers and businesses, tending to reduce real incomes and output while generating government revenue—effects economists and modeling ...

Dec 11, 2025

How do changes in import volumes and tariff rates explain year-over-year revenue shifts from 2015–2025?

Changes in effective tariff rates in 2025 drove large, observable increases in customs revenue: Penn Wharton estimates tariff changes raised $101.2 billion between January and August 2025 , Yale’s Bud...

Dec 4, 2025

How does 2025 tariff revenue compare to 2018 peak levels and the Trump-era tariffs?

Fiscal year 2025 tariff receipts exploded to roughly $195 billion, more than triple FY2024 levels and far above the 2018 peak of $108.2 billion (USAFacts). Analysts estimate the new 2025 tariff progra...

Dec 3, 2025

TARRIFF GOOD FOR AMERICANS?

Tariffs enacted in 2025 raise large government revenue—estimates range from about $205 billion collected through October 2025 to projections of roughly $2.0–$2.5 trillion over 2026–35—while most macro...

Nov 23, 2025

How do tariff collections appear in the federal budget and government financial reports?

Tariff collections appear in federal financial reporting as “customs duties” revenue on Treasury and OMB statements and are incorporated into budget projections and deficit calculations by agencies li...